2015 Global model runs discussion

#221 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:35 am

For those "complaining" about the lack of activity right now just think Andrew and that should ease your worrying if you want to track something like that. Like the old saying goes, "It only takes one" to make it an very active season for some unfortunate folks. IMO

#222 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:41 am

Lets stick to strictly model runs in here, all other discussions lets keep them in their respective threads as has been derailed quite a bit. Conditions or lack-thereof can be talked about in Atlantic indicators thread, we can talk about what years where what in the ENSO thread :wink:

.

Back on topic Mid to late July with semblance of a weaker version MJO should ignite some activity in the models as noted by Hammy. I would focus on the Gulf first for something in close.

Hammy · #223 Postby **Hammy** » Fri Jul 10, 2015 6:39 pm

GFS long range is showing a low off of Florida in the same vicinity and general time frame as the British CFS has been showing for some time.

Hammy · #224 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 2:16 am

True to El Nino, and following what I saw a few people here speculating weeks ago, the latest Euro develops two systems off the East Coast in the next week, including one possibly near hurricane intensity.

#225 Postby **TexasF6** » Thu Jul 16, 2015 8:48 am

What's this about a model run suggesting a full blown cane hitting the Texas coast??? My local Promet mentioned it last night, but made no model reference, and discounted it saying its too far out??? The Truth Is Out There my weather friends. But it is not on our glomodels run page!!!! Anyone?

I Want To Believe.

:double:

#226 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 16, 2015 8:48 am

Some of the other models are hinting at some weak development but they all seem to kill it off before it reaches the islands. Shear monster probably
time sensetive

#227 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:38 am

TexasF6 wrote:What's this about a model run suggesting a full blown cane hitting the Texas coast??? My local Promet mentioned it last night, but made no model reference, and discounted it saying its too far out??? The Truth Is Out There my weather friends. But it is not on our glomodels run page!!!! Anyone?

I Want To Believe.

Euro out to 240 shows nothing, and without a source we have nothing to go on. I would change the channel.

#228 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 17, 2015 12:08 pm

The 12Z GFS has a tropical wave that exits the African coast around one week from now and maintains a closed low across the Atlantic.

10 day position below between Leewards and Africa:

#229 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:20 pm

The ECMWF shows the low moving off Africa but slightly slower than the GFS and more to the south, graphic below.

So both GFS and ECMWF are showing a vigorous wave with attached low moving off Africa in around a week. Something to watch as we edge closer to the start of the Cape Verde season.

12Z GFS 10 day below for comparison:

HeeBGBz · #230 Postby **HeeBGBz** » Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:40 pm

We have a storm about to hit us (Biloxi) that is coming from the east to west. With the storminess in the south and east to Florida, is that conducive? Can tornados spin up in a storm moving east to west?

#231 Postby **TexasF6** » Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:10 pm

HeeBGBz wrote:We have a storm about to hit us (Biloxi) that is coming from the east to west. With the storminess in the south and east to Florida, is that conducive? Can tornados spin up in a storm moving east to west?

Yes HeeBGBz, tornadoes can spin up from a storm system moving from East to West, if conditions are favorable. This thread is generally a models thread, so I would recommend checking out Deep South Wx forum, or check for threads on your question if there are any. If an old cold front sits in the GOM long it enough? It can form into a tropical entity. But model support for this feature is nil so far.....and the storms have fizzled with dusk it seems. Hope this helps!

HeeBGBz · #232 Postby **HeeBGBz** » Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:38 am

Yes, thanks for the info. I sometimes have problems reading the run maps on my phone.

#233 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 19, 2015 5:16 am

The trend of homegrown ones in 2015 may continue if 00z ECMWF is right.

#234 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:15 am

GFS is showing something off the SE US Coast too but weaker.

#235 Postby **NDG** » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:37 am

Very interesting run by the Euro last night as mentioned above, now wait and see on consistency.
BTW, it shows for development off of FL east coast by next Sunday then quickly gain strength.

#236 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:19 am

The Extended Range Forecast from the WPC mentions the area off the SE Coast for potential development of a weak surface low so it may be worth monitoring. The SE has been a 'favored' area for potential tropical development this season and a stalled boundary and the potential for a MCV rolling across the Plains into the SE around the 'Ring of Fire' upper ridge parked over Texas does merit attention.

...MODEL EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER 48 TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS. THE
BIGGEST FLUCTUATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF REMNANT ENERGY FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...THE EXACT TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING THE SPREAD IN THE
DETAILS OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...THE WPC DAY 3-7 FORECAST
RELIED ON THE AGREEABLE AND STABLE GEFS/ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEANS.

#237 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:38 am

Look off the East U.S. Coast for the next storm, not in the tropics.

#238 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jul 19, 2015 9:35 am

Wxman yes, the place to look in the next 7-10 days is off the SE U.S coast.

Still there looks to be quite an impressive wave the EC and GFS are showing rolls off the African coast in about 5 days from now. GFS shows a closed low making it almost all the way across the Leewards before fizzling out in the long rate (288 hours).

It seems the waves are getting stronger and stronger as time goes on. Probably in about 3-4 weeks, we will need to really start looking out the Atlantic between the Leewards and Africa:

TheStormExpert · #239 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:15 pm

Yeah still WOULD NOT rule out the chance of a minimal short lived named storm(kind of like TD-2 from last year) out in the MDR at some point within the next 8 weeks or so. Not expecting a lot BUT, all it takes is that one surprise to create havoc or find a small sweet spot to develop in.

Hammy · #240 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:43 pm

NDG wrote:Very interesting run by the Euro last night as mentioned above, now wait and see on consistency.
BTW, it shows for development off of FL east coast by next Sunday then quickly gain strength.

If this holds, it would be almost identical to Arthur's genesis last year, which was very well forecast by the Euro quite a ways out.

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