2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with a
westward-moving tropical wave. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for slow development of this system later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,do you think EPAC is underperforming as things haved slowed down in the ACE department with no strong Hurricanes after the great start of strong hurricanes?

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,do you think EPAC is underperforming as things haved slowed down in the ACE department with no strong Hurricanes after the great start of strong hurricanes?

Not really underperforming as this has been a feast or famine year as most El Nino years are. I think with the warm SST's out there, late August/September can be a very prime time for hurricanes and major hurricanes.

While we've gotten a few too many weak storms for my liking, I'm not overly concerned. Learned my lesson last year.

[CaliforniaResident]

Yellow Evan,do you think EPAC is underperforming as things haved slowed down in the ACE department with no strong Hurricanes after the great start of strong hurricanes?

Not really underperforming as this has been a feast or famine year as most El Nino years are. I think with the warm SST's out there, late August/September can be a very prime time for hurricanes and major hurricanes.

While we've gotten a few too many weak storms for my liking, I'm not overly concerned. Learned my lesson last year.

The SST off of San Diego hit 76 this weekend. When the remnants of Dolores affected us, the SST were only in the low 70s. By September, parts of our coastline could hit that elusive 80 degree month (September is our warmest month both on land and in water). All it would take is a similar track to Dolores in late September and October and an early season fall trough to push the storm inland and you have a recipe for a repeat of something like this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,do you think EPAC is underperforming as things haved slowed down in the ACE department with no strong Hurricanes after the great start of strong hurricanes?

Not really underperforming as this has been a feast or famine year as most El Nino years are. I think with the warm SST's out there, late August/September can be a very prime time for hurricanes and major hurricanes.

While we've gotten a few too many weak storms for my liking, I'm not overly concerned. Learned my lesson last year.

The SST off of San Diego hit 76 this weekend. When the remnants of Dolores affected us, the SST were only in the low 70s. By September, parts of our coastline could hit that elusive 80 degree month (September is our warmest month both on land and in water). All it would take is a similar track to Dolores in late September and October and an early season fall trough to push the storm inland and you have a recipe for a repeat of something like this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane

Yes, but SST's are colder the further you get out and likely won't reach 26C. If a TC were to make it, it'd have to cross waters of 22-23C. Not impossible, but still not too likely.

Not sure if the 1858 San Diego hurricane was an actual hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have increased since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large
area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS makes the 0/50 a hurricane







And then has a parade of storms that the GFS has been off and on about lately.

[cycloneye]

Invest 91E is up

[Kingarabian]

Just got back to Hawaii and I can finally take part in conversations again.

(@Yellow Evan, 3 big Vegas basketball tournaments loaded with D1 prospects and future NBA players! I'm a basketball fanatic myself. Go Lakers!)

EPAC looks to be favorable for development for the rest of the month. Especially with that big WWB rolling.

[Yellow Evan]

Just got back to Hawaii and I can finally take part in conversations again.

(@Yellow Evan, 3 big Vegas basketball tournaments loaded with D1 prospects and future NBA players! I'm a basketball fanatic myself. Go Lakers!)

EPAC looks to be favorable for development for the rest of the month. Especially with that big WWB rolling.

Neat.

But anyway, EPAC looks like it's in high gear. We'll have the best possible comdination. A CCKW,followed by MJO, then likely more MJO after it gets back on track. We'll be busy for quite some time and I think we could be dealing with stronger storms this time around.

CFS and CFS ensemble are in perfect agreement on this.



Here is the 16 day 18z GFS run:

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS shows another southern clipper hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS 16 days out

[srainhoutx]

The ECMWF has been very suggestive the past several runs of yet another EPAC Hurricane developing and moving WNW eventually shifting to the Central Pacific and posing a possible threat to Hawaii.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be
somewhat conducive for slow development of this system this week as
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[TheStormExpert]

Here we go again!?

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave located about 950 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this
system later this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Kingarabian]

Might as well keep recon here in Hawaii.

GFS doesn't have it. But again, it initially didn't have 08E and Guillermo.