Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

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NDG
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#381 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:00 am

Northjaxpro, as if the models are missing a few inhibiting ingredients in the formulation for a tropical system to form in their forecast and like I said I am big time disappointed in that the Euro is on the list this year and doing worst than the GFS close to home.
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#382 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:06 am

Makes me wonder why they upgrade these models l, especially the Euro.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#383 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:38 am

Both the GFS & Euro do indicate a weak low moving westward across the northern Gulf this weekend. It shows up better if you're able to plot a pressure analysis down to 1 or 1/2 millibar. In both models, the lows are weak (1012-1013mb). Wind shear remains high across the central Gulf. The low is inland by Sunday without developing, which is the most likely scenario. It may bring a little rain to the coast, though. Hopefully we get a little rain in SE TX out of it, but the rain may stay to our east.
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Re:

#384 Postby Agua » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:40 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Makes me wonder why they upgrade these models l, especially the Euro.


To keep physicists and programmers employed. The same reason they're always ruining perfectly good software and websites.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#385 Postby Sanibel » Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:39 am

It must be a negative year because convection rarely lingers over the GOM for that long without forming.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#386 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:48 am

Sanibel wrote:It must be a negative year because convection rarely lingers over the GOM for that long without forming.

Yeah, and wasn't the GoM said by many to be one of the more favorable regions alongside the SE U.S. Coast, and SW Atlantic?
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#387 Postby fwbbreeze » Fri Jul 31, 2015 10:58 am

Definantly some type of rotation south of Panama City/ Destin.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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#388 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:15 am

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Re:

#389 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:38 am




Too much shear and that is going to stop it from developing. Without the shear it is scary to think what could of been. Hopefully this thing will just go poof and disappear. That is my opinion and of course it is no forecast.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#390 Postby HeeBGBz » Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:49 am

There is an elongated circulation south of the Destin area according to http://earth.nullschool.net
Last edited by HeeBGBz on Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#391 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:50 am

The main area of convection seems to be setting itself up south of the LA. coast.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#392 Postby poof121 » Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:00 pm

The scary part is it looks like the upper high displacing the shear axis to the south. Scroll through the times and you'll see it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#393 Postby tailgater » Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:04 pm

Seems like we have two camps, some still want to develop it slightly( CMC and Nam) and send northeastward and some( GFS and Euro) keep it weak and drifting generally westward.
Image
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#394 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Fri Jul 31, 2015 3:11 pm

Vorticity becoming elongated and it looks like a mess. I think the thing is done before it got started.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#395 Postby N2FSU » Fri Jul 31, 2015 3:35 pm

NWS TLH in their afternoon discussion talks about the low moving back NE over this area this weekend. While not an organized storm, it looks to dump excessive amounts of rain and a Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Some high-res ensemble models indicate a "20-40% chance of the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia receiving 9"+."
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#396 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:45 pm

Shear is decreasing and something is trying to spin up below Louisiana. If it is going to do it it will have to be now. The blob heading toward Texas could be a part of it not sure. Anyone else care to share what they are seeing if anything at all? The earth wind map is showing a better defined circulation.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#397 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:53 pm

Current satellite image has a hint of a mid-level circulation over the NW GOM. Not concerned for development at this point but a good reminder we are approaching the most active portion of the season and will be watching closely as weak fronts/boundary move into the GOM in August when upper level conditions could promote tropical development close to home.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico

#398 Postby tailgater » Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:18 pm

Beautiful light show looking south from south LA. Tonite
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NCSTORMMAN

#399 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:37 pm

Yeah nothing is going to come of this. Strange that shear was perfectly placed in the two areas that needed it the most. Good news for everyone in the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast. Dodged another bullet perhaps. Good night people.
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#400 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 01, 2015 6:43 am

There is another decent low pressure area moving into the NE GOM coming off the panhandle. Lowest pressure I have found from buoy readings was 1010mb. As usual it is in a sheared environment.

Image

It caught my attention when I read my barometer which also read 1010mb.
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