Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)
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- wxman57
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
Both the GFS & Euro do indicate a weak low moving westward across the northern Gulf this weekend. It shows up better if you're able to plot a pressure analysis down to 1 or 1/2 millibar. In both models, the lows are weak (1012-1013mb). Wind shear remains high across the central Gulf. The low is inland by Sunday without developing, which is the most likely scenario. It may bring a little rain to the coast, though. Hopefully we get a little rain in SE TX out of it, but the rain may stay to our east.
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TheStormExpert wrote:Makes me wonder why they upgrade these models l, especially the Euro.
To keep physicists and programmers employed. The same reason they're always ruining perfectly good software and websites.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
It must be a negative year because convection rarely lingers over the GOM for that long without forming.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
Sanibel wrote:It must be a negative year because convection rarely lingers over the GOM for that long without forming.
Yeah, and wasn't the GoM said by many to be one of the more favorable regions alongside the SE U.S. Coast, and SW Atlantic?
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- fwbbreeze
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
Definantly some type of rotation south of Panama City/ Destin.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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- tropicwatch
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Shows up on radar pretty good too. Might be an eddy.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28.5&lon=-84.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28.5&lon=-84.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15
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Tropicwatch
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panamatropicwatch wrote:Shows up on radar pretty good too. Might be an eddy.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28.5&lon=-84.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15
Too much shear and that is going to stop it from developing. Without the shear it is scary to think what could of been. Hopefully this thing will just go poof and disappear. That is my opinion and of course it is no forecast.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
There is an elongated circulation south of the Destin area according to http://earth.nullschool.net
Last edited by HeeBGBz on Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
The main area of convection seems to be setting itself up south of the LA. coast.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
The scary part is it looks like the upper high displacing the shear axis to the south. Scroll through the times and you'll see it.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
Seems like we have two camps, some still want to develop it slightly( CMC and Nam) and send northeastward and some( GFS and Euro) keep it weak and drifting generally westward.


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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
NWS TLH in their afternoon discussion talks about the low moving back NE over this area this weekend. While not an organized storm, it looks to dump excessive amounts of rain and a Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Some high-res ensemble models indicate a "20-40% chance of the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia receiving 9"+."
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Shear is decreasing and something is trying to spin up below Louisiana. If it is going to do it it will have to be now. The blob heading toward Texas could be a part of it not sure. Anyone else care to share what they are seeing if anything at all? The earth wind map is showing a better defined circulation.
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Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
Current satellite image has a hint of a mid-level circulation over the NW GOM. Not concerned for development at this point but a good reminder we are approaching the most active portion of the season and will be watching closely as weak fronts/boundary move into the GOM in August when upper level conditions could promote tropical development close to home.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico
Beautiful light show looking south from south LA. Tonite
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- tropicwatch
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There is another decent low pressure area moving into the NE GOM coming off the panhandle. Lowest pressure I have found from buoy readings was 1010mb. As usual it is in a sheared environment.

It caught my attention when I read my barometer which also read 1010mb.

It caught my attention when I read my barometer which also read 1010mb.
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Tropicwatch
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