Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[NDG]

What a difference 6 hrs make. Around noon we were looking at a low level naked swirl, now deep convection is near the COC.

[tropicwatch]

I think the models have been out to lunch a little bit

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop from today

[northjaxpro]

So how much time does it have on water

Well, to everyone's surprise the Low drifted into Apalachee Bay on a very slow south/southeast drift very early today, and has maintained that drift all day long. The system has stayed over water all day and now even is drifting more due south the past couple of hours. The forecast was for the system to get pulled northeast, but to this point obviously that has not happened.

If the southerly drift continues through the night, this will I think be classified at the very least as a TD. It also could drift south to a point where it can get a bit farther offshore as well. It was drifting almost identically parallel the Big Bend coast on a south/southeast header, almost hugging against it actually. But, a more southward drift could get the system a bit farther out over the water. A very interesting evening tonight monitoring this feature. It is definitely organizing and I am wondering what other surprises this system is trying to pull on us?

[TheStormExpert]

I agree

Is it me or does it look to be less definable on radar?

Looks that way because Convection has fired over the center, you don't see the little bands spiraling around a hole so easily now.

After looking at the radar a few more times I have to agree with you.

[TheStormExpert]

Saved radar loop from today

That southern side rain band doesn't look as curved as before.

[lovingseason2013]

So what is the thinking on where the low is moving? Is it going out to the gulf, inshore somewhere? Is there any model support, and is there any chance SE Florida can get some rain from this as it has been so dry!

[Dean4Storms]

Saved radar loop from today

That southern side rain band doesn't look as curved as before.

Something that should be pointed out looking at a radar depiction in this scenario where the shear from the North being still pretty strong. The circulation is likely tilted, in other words what we see as the circulation on radar at around 5K feet is likely a bit further to the South of the surface circulation. This is still a sheared system.

[NDG]

This is some nice inflow. this buoy is reporting, into the storms near the COC.

Conditions at 42036 as of
(5:50 pm CDT)
2250 GMT on 08/02/2015:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 250 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SW ( 230 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 78.8 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 90.3 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 31.1 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

[NDG]

Saved radar loop from today

http://imageshack.com/a/img538/1231/uW8MNZ.gif

That southern side rain band doesn't look as curved as before.

Something that should be pointed out looking at a radar depiction in this scenario where the shear from the North being still pretty strong. The circulation is likely tilted, in other words what we see as the circulation on radar at around 5K feet is likely a bit further to the South of the surface circulation. This is still a sheared system.

Yeah I agree, and it could be that the mid level circulation is starting to get sheared away once again towards the south because looking at surface reports the surface COC has not moved that far south yet.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, shear is still present, but not the crippling shear we had been seeing all this past week currently. The shear has let up enough for this Low to wrap up a bit these past 6 hours.

[tropicwatch]

Close to TD status.

[psyclone]

FWIW the winds have reduced here as compared to earlier this afternoon.

[SouthDadeFish]

Folks, keep in mind one of the conditions necessary for classification as a tropical cyclone is persistent, organized convection. As some of you pointed out, the swirl was devoid of convection earlier today. If convection persists overnight, then we could be debating if this is a TC or not. Nonetheless, quite an interesting feature. Continues to look better organized in my opinion.

[NDG]

Yeah, shear is still present, but not the crippling shear we had been seeing all this past week currently. The shear has let up enough for this Low to wrap up a bit these past 6 hours.

I can't wait to see the sounding from TPA and TLH at 0z,

[TheStormExpert]

Seriously!?


000
ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located along the coast of the Florida
Big Bend is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
across portions of northern Florida and the extreme northeastern
Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive
for development while the low moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
across north Florida and near the southeastern United States coast
during the next few days. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of northern
Florida tonight and Monday. For additional information on rainfall
associated with this system, refer to products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Hammy]

If this continues to organize, wouldn't it go with the upper flow and be pushed inland before it can develop?

[psyclone]

Folks, keep in mind one of the conditions necessary for classification as a tropical cyclone is persistent, organized convection. As some of you pointed out, the swirl was devoid of convection earlier today. If convection persists overnight, then we could be debating if this is a TC or not. Nonetheless, quite an interesting feature. Continues to look better organized in my opinion.

I concur on all points. We lack the persistence the NHC wisely looks for.

[northjaxpro]

Wow, NHC not recognizing the southward drift. Interesting. Also I would have upped the percentages. Just my opinion.

[JKingTampa]

I'm not seeing the slightest northeast movement, but again that's just me...