msbee wrote:Danny is forecast to weaken as it approaches us. The latest NHC discussion states " However, by 36 hours and beyond, the 850-200 mb
vertical wind shear is expected to increase from a southerly to
southwesterly direction, which should induce weakening, especially
as Danny approaches or moves through the Leeward Island.."
I know to always prepare etc. Gonzalo surprised us last year by being stronger and more destructive than forecast. So I am taking no chances this time around.
I would like some expert opinions though on what you all think about Danny actually weakening as he approaches the islands. pros and cons on this forecast please?
Thanks.
Hi msbee (Barbara), greetings to you also for this new 2015 season. Hope you are well! I am laid up with a broken ankle.
I hate to have to say it, but this one is tough and I, personally, can't go any further than what the NHC and some of our smart pro-mets here have been saying. This is one is very tough to forecast. Because of its small size it can fluctuate up and down in intensity much more than larger storms. Thus over a few hours period you will see people saying it's going to dissipate completely and then say it's going to be a major hurricane. The only negative aspect that could hurt it right now is dry air around it that, if it gets sucked in, would kill the storm. But right now it seems to be walling off the dry air and thus it has nothing to stop it from getting stronger. By Friday some increasing wind shear could hurt it more, but if it's quite strong by then the shear will take longer to hurt it and it could make it to your islands as a cat 1 hurricane (outside chance cat 2). But if it doesn't get much stronger tonight and then gets sheared tomorrow night and Friday, you could have a mild tropical storm instead with beneficial rainfall. Also, because the size is small it could be very strong at one island and almost nothing at the neighboring ones. A lot to worry about, eh? But you are one of our seasoned experts like Gusty and cycloneye so you know the drill: even a mild tropical storm can produce devastating floods, and you should prepare for a hurricane coming Monday so that you are not caught off guard. I never really forecast until 3 days out or less, so I will try to be more specific tomorrow evening.