ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

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tolakram
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Re: Re:

#801 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:20 pm

Nederlander wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:With the latest burst it looks like Danny is undergoing RI

I've seen this comment several times on here but I think RI is used quite flippantly. For a system to be undergoing RI, max sustained winds must increase at least 30 kt in a 24-hour period. I see moderate strengthening, but nothing to suggest RI.


How many kts has Danny increased since last night?
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Re: Re:

#802 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:22 pm

tolakram wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:With the latest burst it looks like Danny is undergoing RI

I've seen this comment several times on here but I think RI is used quite flippantly. For a system to be undergoing RI, max sustained winds must increase at least 30 kt in a 24-hour period. I see moderate strengthening, but nothing to suggest RI.


How many kts has Danny increased since last night?


25kts which is just below RI but if you go from last night then maybe

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Re: Re:

#803 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:25 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How high would NHC go if this is clearly strengthening with hot towers?

I would think they bump him up to 70kts at 5pm. Maybe 75kts.


Just remember though, guys, that they tend to play it very conservative, especially if it's well out to sea and they don't have recent recon to verify. They will almost surely note the convection increase and overall presentation but they will probably leave the intensity the same for now. Just my guess. You all know they sometimes surprise us. :wink:


Hey Pete, so so true regarding NHC's conservative nature with storm strength analysis when a hurricane is still so distant from any land mass. Given Danny's really small and tight inner core, I would be very inclined to believe that sustained winds are between 85-95mph. Here is where I think things might become a little bit dicey though. NHC overall model guidance seems to have a more congruent sense of the near to mid term steering. Regardless, I think that this tiny hurricane is going to give NHC near term fits with relocating each new forecast due to a bit of little jump stair - steps that Danny will take as a result of the eye jerking north at times... a result of the storms vertically deep core possibly wobbling North and West as impacted by the slightly stiffening upper flow from the South and the brief weakening of the ridge south of Bermuda. Its this reason (along with the storm weakening due to shear) that I believe that Danny will probably not offer much rainfall to the precip. starved E. Caribbean islands. I think tonight will bring Danny's greatest overall appearance and strength for the near term and that increase in wind shear might start significantly impacting the storms inner core as early as midday/ late tomorrow. Then the next concern will be whether there's enough of a vigorous circulation remaining, to permit regeneration north of Hispaniola or southern Bahamas downstream. I won't even go there at the mmoment ;)

Also, OzonePete... thanks for the kind words yesterday. They didn't go unnoticed :)
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#804 Postby xironman » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:29 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Wow some really intense hot towers popping in the SW now. Those are the reds showing up in AVN IR satellite. Since we are heading for DMAX overnight now there could be some impressive strengthening...


Could this end up a major before conditions become more hostile

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Re: Re:

#805 Postby Nederlander » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:36 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Nederlander wrote:I've seen this comment several times on here but I think RI is used quite flippantly. For a system to be undergoing RI, max sustained winds must increase at least 30 kt in a 24-hour period. I see moderate strengthening, but nothing to suggest RI.


How many kts has Danny increased since last night?


25kts which is just below RI but if you go from last night then maybe

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Yes, good points. I was going back 24hrs. with the wind speeds (as well as getting my kts and mph mixed up lol. It certainly has a shot to get there.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#806 Postby msbee » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:44 pm

Danny is forecast to weaken as it approaches us. The latest NHC discussion states " However, by 36 hours and beyond, the 850-200 mb
vertical wind shear is expected to increase from a southerly to
southwesterly direction, which should induce weakening, especially
as Danny approaches or moves through the Leeward Island.."

I know to always prepare etc. Gonzalo surprised us last year by being stronger and more destructive than forecast. So I am taking no chances this time around.
I would like some expert opinions though on what you all think about Danny actually weakening as he approaches the islands. pros and cons on this forecast please?
Thanks.
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#807 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:45 pm

High towers firing right now - Danny's convection is on the increase and looks intense, especially on the southern side.

Pretty nice banding structure too.

Hope the shear near the Leewards can get to it.
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Re: Re:

#808 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:48 pm

Nederlander wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:With the latest burst it looks like Danny is undergoing RI

I've seen this comment several times on here but I think RI is used quite flippantly. For a system to be undergoing RI, max sustained winds must increase at least 30 kt in a 24-hour period. I see moderate strengthening, but nothing to suggest RI.


Haha though it might be overused at times, there is a good case to be made here. Let's meet back tomorrow at this time and compare notes. :)
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#809 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:49 pm

Convection is definitely on the increase. Not only is Danny appear to be getting stronger but he also appears to be getting larger. Must be tapping into some of those real warm SST's out there.

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#810 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:53 pm

This compares to in size to Humberto in 2007 and intensity but clearly needs to be watched in the northern Lesser antilles and Puerto Rico and maybe Hispaniola but from there its anyones guess

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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#811 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:02 pm

msbee wrote:Danny is forecast to weaken as it approaches us. The latest NHC discussion states " However, by 36 hours and beyond, the 850-200 mb
vertical wind shear is expected to increase from a southerly to
southwesterly direction, which should induce weakening, especially
as Danny approaches or moves through the Leeward Island.."

I know to always prepare etc. Gonzalo surprised us last year by being stronger and more destructive than forecast. So I am taking no chances this time around.
I would like some expert opinions though on what you all think about Danny actually weakening as he approaches the islands. pros and cons on this forecast please?
Thanks.

Hi Barbara, glad to see you :). Very interresting post from you part. I hope that the pro mets could give us a bright idea about that.
Thanks :)
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#812 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:05 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:12 PM ECT THU, AUG 20, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

DANNY STRENGTENS A LITTLE MORE

AT 5PM ECT OR 2100Z THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH,LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORCAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEREAFTER.

DANNY IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB OR 29.24 INCHES.

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MONDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD COMPLETE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS AND BE PREPARED TO START TO IMPLEMENT THEM IF NECESSARY.

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF DANNY CLOSELY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM ECT POSITION, 13.0 N, 45.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT11PM ECT

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION

FORECASTER GEORGE BRAITHWAITE
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#813 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:07 pm

msbee wrote:Danny is forecast to weaken as it approaches us. The latest NHC discussion states " However, by 36 hours and beyond, the 850-200 mb
vertical wind shear is expected to increase from a southerly to
southwesterly direction, which should induce weakening, especially
as Danny approaches or moves through the Leeward Island.."

I know to always prepare etc. Gonzalo surprised us last year by being stronger and more destructive than forecast. So I am taking no chances this time around.
I would like some expert opinions though on what you all think about Danny actually weakening as he approaches the islands. pros and cons on this forecast please?
Thanks.


Hi msbee (Barbara), greetings to you also for this new 2015 season. Hope you are well! I am laid up with a broken ankle. :(

I hate to have to say it, but this one is tough and I, personally, can't go any further than what the NHC and some of our smart pro-mets here have been saying. This is one is very tough to forecast. Because of its small size it can fluctuate up and down in intensity much more than larger storms. Thus over a few hours period you will see people saying it's going to dissipate completely and then say it's going to be a major hurricane. The only negative aspect that could hurt it right now is dry air around it that, if it gets sucked in, would kill the storm. But right now it seems to be walling off the dry air and thus it has nothing to stop it from getting stronger. By Friday some increasing wind shear could hurt it more, but if it's quite strong by then the shear will take longer to hurt it and it could make it to your islands as a cat 1 hurricane (outside chance cat 2). But if it doesn't get much stronger tonight and then gets sheared tomorrow night and Friday, you could have a mild tropical storm instead with beneficial rainfall. Also, because the size is small it could be very strong at one island and almost nothing at the neighboring ones. A lot to worry about, eh? But you are one of our seasoned experts like Gusty and cycloneye so you know the drill: even a mild tropical storm can produce devastating floods, and you should prepare for a hurricane coming Monday so that you are not caught off guard. I never really forecast until 3 days out or less, so I will try to be more specific tomorrow evening.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#814 Postby Siker » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:08 pm

Burst of convection now surrounds (and covers) the eye:

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#815 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:10 pm

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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#816 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:14 pm

From 5pm Disco: "The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies
close to the IVCN consensus model."


Image

Image

Blend of open water north model tracks and crash into the mountains tracks... Result is a middle of the road TS...
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#817 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:47 pm

CDO is quite good looking right now, expect the eye to come back out sometime this evening

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#818 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:47 pm

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits
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Re:

#819 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:52 pm

drezee wrote:We will get a better feel for his Northern wind field shortly. The closest thing we have to recon is below:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041


Wind gust to 25.3Kts last hour...center should pass between 60-70nm at its closest approach tonight...should be on the border of the TS winds... it should also happen right about the time for the 11pm advisory
Last edited by drezee on Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#820 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:52 pm

It looks like it wobbled a little to the north with the new burst of convection.
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