ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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gatorcane
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#741 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:17 pm

So let's compare the 18Z GFS with the 18Z HWRF at hour 126 (when the HWRF run ends) and compare the 500MB chart to see where the GFS would send a system as deep as the HWRF shows. From what I can see, it appears the GFS has more of a ridge than the HWRF. Looking at the GFS chart, you can see the ridge axis that starts around Central Florida and extends out into the Southern Bahamas. The HWRF on the other hand has the center of the ridge further east which results in the 500MB flow being parallel to the east coast of Florida.

Would this mean the GFS would send even a stronger system into South Florida with what this 500MB chart is showing?

GFS
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HWRF:
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Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#742 Postby BucMan2 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:21 pm

Does anyone have a shot of what time each model runs?
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Re:

#743 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:23 pm

BucMan2 wrote:Does anyone have a shot of what time each model runs?


GFS starts around 11:30 PM ET
EURO/ECWMF at 2 AM ET

The various dynamic models (HWRF, GFDL, NAVGEM, UKMET, CMC, GEM, etc) all run between the GFS and EURO
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#744 Postby BucMan2 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:28 pm

Thank you Adam
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#745 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:39 pm

toad strangler wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:Wow. SouthEast FL in the crosshairs. Tight clustering too.


The high mountains of PR and Hispaniola are the biggest question as far as track goes. Will whatever Erika can muster be far enough north of the cheese grater to proceed unimpeded by terra firm before approaching the far SE US.

It has been surprising that there has not been too much windshield wiping on the models with this one. Perhaps this is because the cyclone is moving so fast and handled better because of this.
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Following the edge of the ridge nearly the whole way...leads to pretty straight W-NW track until near the end.
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Re:

#746 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:40 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:All models have one thing on common that strengthen. .When they reach 25 N...BOOM.


And Miami is about 26.8 if I am correct.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#747 Postby boca » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:42 pm

Miami is 25.8 north,26.8 is around west palm beach
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#748 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:43 pm

boca wrote:Miami is 25.8 north,26.8 is around west palm beach



Thanks Boca so blows up on top of us.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#749 Postby boca » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:50 pm

Usually if we start out in the cone we don't end up getting the storm from experience from the past.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#750 Postby mitchell » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:59 pm

boca wrote:Usually if we start out in the cone we don't end up getting the storm from experience from the past.

that's classic right there!
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#751 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:00 pm

Well been through my share down here,

Donna .Betsy, Andrew, Katrina and other small stuff, so have my eyes on this one.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#752 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:01 pm

boca wrote:Usually if we start out in the cone we don't end up getting the storm from experience from the past.



That would be more of an indictment on the past NHC cone then it is your own luck lol …. today it's much tighter.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#753 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:03 pm

If it were only that simple. Most of us know that is not where it will end up going. IMO


ronjon wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:Wow. SouthEast FL in the crosshairs. Tight clustering too.


The high mountains of PR and Hispaniola are the biggest question as far as track goes. Will whatever Erika can muster be far enough north of the cheese grater to proceed unimpeded by terra firm before approaching the far SE US.

It has been surprising that there has not been too much windshield wiping on the models with this one. Perhaps this is because the cyclone is moving so fast and handled better because of this.
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Following the edge of the ridge nearly the whole way...leads to pretty straight W-NW track until near the end.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#754 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:08 pm

Intensity is the big question???? Do they bump it up w/o the EURO/GFS support???
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#755 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:09 pm

Nice catch there regarding that most of the models have been fairly consistent bringing what ever this storm turns out to be in this general area.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#756 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:14 pm

Blown Away wrote:Intensity is the big question???? Do they bump it up w/o the EURO/GFS support???


I would assume they kept it at 65kts until the 0z GFS and Euro run. They can always adjust downwards or upwards at 5am.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#757 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:17 pm

Can you please clarify the 65 knots at what point as far as location and time frame.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#758 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:30 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Can you please clarify the 65 knots at what point as far as location and time frame.


The NHC is currently forecasting a 65kt hurricane at 25north 78 west in 5 days.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#759 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:26 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Can you please clarify the 65 knots at what point as far as location and time frame.


The NHC is currently forecasting a 65kt hurricane at 25north 78 west in 5 days.



Thank u again Boca.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#760 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:40 pm

0z GFS rolling.
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