ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[gatorcane]

So let's compare the 18Z GFS with the 18Z HWRF at hour 126 (when the HWRF run ends) and compare the 500MB chart to see where the GFS would send a system as deep as the HWRF shows. From what I can see, it appears the GFS has more of a ridge than the HWRF. Looking at the GFS chart, you can see the ridge axis that starts around Central Florida and extends out into the Southern Bahamas. The HWRF on the other hand has the center of the ridge further east which results in the 500MB flow being parallel to the east coast of Florida.

Would this mean the GFS would send even a stronger system into South Florida with what this 500MB chart is showing?

GFS


HWRF:

[BucMan2]

Does anyone have a shot of what time each model runs?

[AdamFirst]

Does anyone have a shot of what time each model runs?

GFS starts around 11:30 PM ET
EURO/ECWMF at 2 AM ET

The various dynamic models (HWRF, GFDL, NAVGEM, UKMET, CMC, GEM, etc) all run between the GFS and EURO

[BucMan2]

Thank you Adam

[ronjon]

Wow. SouthEast FL in the crosshairs. Tight clustering too.

The high mountains of PR and Hispaniola are the biggest question as far as track goes. Will whatever Erika can muster be far enough north of the cheese grater to proceed unimpeded by terra firm before approaching the far SE US.

It has been surprising that there has not been too much windshield wiping on the models with this one. Perhaps this is because the cyclone is moving so fast and handled better because of this.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Following the edge of the ridge nearly the whole way...leads to pretty straight W-NW track until near the end.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

All models have one thing on common that strengthen. .When they reach 25 N...BOOM.

And Miami is about 26.8 if I am correct.

[boca]

Miami is 25.8 north,26.8 is around west palm beach

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Miami is 25.8 north,26.8 is around west palm beach

Thanks Boca so blows up on top of us.

[boca]

Usually if we start out in the cone we don't end up getting the storm from experience from the past.

[mitchell]

Usually if we start out in the cone we don't end up getting the storm from experience from the past.

that's classic right there!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well been through my share down here,

Donna .Betsy, Andrew, Katrina and other small stuff, so have my eyes on this one.

[toad strangler]

Usually if we start out in the cone we don't end up getting the storm from experience from the past.

That would be more of an indictment on the past NHC cone then it is your own luck lol …. today it's much tighter.

[Stormcenter]

If it were only that simple. Most of us know that is not where it will end up going. IMO

Wow. SouthEast FL in the crosshairs. Tight clustering too.

The high mountains of PR and Hispaniola are the biggest question as far as track goes. Will whatever Erika can muster be far enough north of the cheese grater to proceed unimpeded by terra firm before approaching the far SE US.

It has been surprising that there has not been too much windshield wiping on the models with this one. Perhaps this is because the cyclone is moving so fast and handled better because of this.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Following the edge of the ridge nearly the whole way...leads to pretty straight W-NW track until near the end.

[Blown Away]

Intensity is the big question???? Do they bump it up w/o the EURO/GFS support???

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Nice catch there regarding that most of the models have been fairly consistent bringing what ever this storm turns out to be in this general area.

[Bocadude85]

Intensity is the big question???? Do they bump it up w/o the EURO/GFS support???

I would assume they kept it at 65kts until the 0z GFS and Euro run. They can always adjust downwards or upwards at 5am.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Can you please clarify the 65 knots at what point as far as location and time frame.

[Bocadude85]

Can you please clarify the 65 knots at what point as far as location and time frame.

The NHC is currently forecasting a 65kt hurricane at 25north 78 west in 5 days.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Can you please clarify the 65 knots at what point as far as location and time frame.

The NHC is currently forecasting a 65kt hurricane at 25north 78 west in 5 days.

Thank u again Boca.

[Bocadude85]

0z GFS rolling.