ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Probably from 40,000 people hitting refresh!
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Miami Storm Tracker
- Category 4
- Posts: 910
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
- Location: Key Largo, Fla.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
If that is true then the run may be a some sue as far as track, to compare with the others.
0 likes
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
sponger wrote:Probably from 40,000 people hitting refresh!
refresh
Refresh
REFRESH!!!!
REFRESHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

BTW, all my refresh's work fine.

0 likes
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
ericinmia wrote:sponger wrote:Probably from 40,000 people hitting refresh!
refresh
Refresh
REFRESH!!!!
REFRESHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
BTW, all my refresh's work fine.
The HWRF takes longer. That whole run won't be complete until 2am.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4030
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Now wait for it to shift back east again. 

0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Miami Storm Tracker
- Category 4
- Posts: 910
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
- Location: Key Largo, Fla.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Not a chance going to bed, Brian catch me up tomorrow on the HWRF and EURO.
0 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL

0Z GFS shows Erika moving inland to near SC/NC border @ 180 hr. It would be a big flooding concern for them if that comes close to verifying with ithe storm's slow N/NE movement.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:12 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- Miami Storm Tracker
- Category 4
- Posts: 910
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
- Location: Key Largo, Fla.
- Contact:
- SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Okay, my 2 cents worth (maybe worth 1 cent - anyone else's call)
I've been scratching my head all day as the updated models have continued to assert that this trough extending down into the Central Gulf, was now suddenly to be the cause of a 594 High Pressure ridge anchored north of Erika to weaken thus causing a more northward turn as Erika were to approach the W. Bahamas. Meanwhile, this trough is not connected from any split flow sub tropical feature from the west, and more importantly seems entirely cut off from the overall Westerlies over the Conus. All this as the forecasted 96 hour Conus 500mb high seems to expand eastward and strengthen thus shoving the 588 line clear north to the Canadian border (and only dropping ESE to the New Jersey Coastline well north of the W. Atlantic 500 high. Of course now we see the GFS 0Z run shift Erika's track a bit westward as a result and we await the EURO for further confirmation of a potentially greater blocking pattern that would suggest greater threat to the Conus.
So...... maybe I've been eating to many Slim Jim's from 7-11 lately and they're simply affecting my sense of reasoning LOL. But as I see the big picture (including the pretty deep mid Atlantic trough digging well to the east), I'm here all day thinking that these models are way overplaying that trough and suddenly discounting a 594 high to the north that seemingly extends to the coast. Even with tonight's 0Z run, I'm looking at the 96 hour 500mb forecast and cant help but think that Baja California has a better chance of seeing Erika, than Bermuda ever will (okay, slight tongue 'n cheek there for sake of making my point). Bottom line is, I don't really give a rat's a#@ how deep Erika might be as she approaches Eastern Cuba, but I truly have a hard time believing that Erika doesn't make it to the E. Gulf and perhaps stall, drift, or even dance a little jig for all I know. I just don't see that pattern with a trough predominately cut off from the Westerlies, serve to erode what should be a building/bridging ridge to Erika's north.
Okay, "Model steering rant" over. The captain has now turned off the seat-belt sign, you may freely move about the cabin...... LOL
I've been scratching my head all day as the updated models have continued to assert that this trough extending down into the Central Gulf, was now suddenly to be the cause of a 594 High Pressure ridge anchored north of Erika to weaken thus causing a more northward turn as Erika were to approach the W. Bahamas. Meanwhile, this trough is not connected from any split flow sub tropical feature from the west, and more importantly seems entirely cut off from the overall Westerlies over the Conus. All this as the forecasted 96 hour Conus 500mb high seems to expand eastward and strengthen thus shoving the 588 line clear north to the Canadian border (and only dropping ESE to the New Jersey Coastline well north of the W. Atlantic 500 high. Of course now we see the GFS 0Z run shift Erika's track a bit westward as a result and we await the EURO for further confirmation of a potentially greater blocking pattern that would suggest greater threat to the Conus.
So...... maybe I've been eating to many Slim Jim's from 7-11 lately and they're simply affecting my sense of reasoning LOL. But as I see the big picture (including the pretty deep mid Atlantic trough digging well to the east), I'm here all day thinking that these models are way overplaying that trough and suddenly discounting a 594 high to the north that seemingly extends to the coast. Even with tonight's 0Z run, I'm looking at the 96 hour 500mb forecast and cant help but think that Baja California has a better chance of seeing Erika, than Bermuda ever will (okay, slight tongue 'n cheek there for sake of making my point). Bottom line is, I don't really give a rat's a#@ how deep Erika might be as she approaches Eastern Cuba, but I truly have a hard time believing that Erika doesn't make it to the E. Gulf and perhaps stall, drift, or even dance a little jig for all I know. I just don't see that pattern with a trough predominately cut off from the Westerlies, serve to erode what should be a building/bridging ridge to Erika's north.
Okay, "Model steering rant" over. The captain has now turned off the seat-belt sign, you may freely move about the cabin...... LOL
0 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
blp wrote:ericinmia wrote:sponger wrote:Probably from 40,000 people hitting refresh!
refresh
Refresh
REFRESH!!!!
REFRESHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
BTW, all my refresh's work fine.
The HWRF takes longer. That whole run won't be complete until 2am.
All joking aside, I know... I lurk more often then post, but I've been around for a while.

But like christmas night for a child, it's hard to go to sleep and miss or even wait for the next 'gift'
0 likes
Re:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Why isn't the xtrp model refreshing
It is always the last to update!


0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Miami Storm Tracker
- Category 4
- Posts: 910
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
- Location: Key Largo, Fla.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Not totally out of the question, or some where in between. Such as making land fall between Miami and Palm Beach slowly moving NW up the spine or even off the West coat of FLA.
0 likes
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
BTW, all my refresh's work fine.
[/quote]
The HWRF takes longer. That whole run won't be complete until 2am.[/quote]
All joking aside, I know... I lurk more often then post, but I've been around for a while.
But like christmas night for a child, it's hard to go to sleep and miss or even wait for the next 'gift'[/quote]
Good to see you back!

The HWRF takes longer. That whole run won't be complete until 2am.[/quote]
All joking aside, I know... I lurk more often then post, but I've been around for a while.

But like christmas night for a child, it's hard to go to sleep and miss or even wait for the next 'gift'[/quote]
Good to see you back!
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL

Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
ATL: ERIKA - Models
sponger wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Why isn't the xtrp model refreshing
It is always the last to update!![]()
Ohhh I see. I'll wait up and see what happens.

0 likes
Chaser, you make a great point. Seems like all is in play. NHC must be believing the eastward shift. We will see if their amazing forecasting ability holds up. I can't wait for the 5 pm advisory tomorrow. That will put us within 72 hours of approaching SFL and the accuracy goes up tremendously from there.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
sponger wrote:Chaser, you make a great point. Seems like all is in play. NHC must be believing the eastward shift. We will see if their amazing forecasting ability holds up. I can't wait for the 5 pm advisory tomorrow. That will put us within 72 hours of approaching SFL and the accuracy goes up tremendously from there.
Agreed!
With the 72+ hrs window to Florida, better model data, and Erika entering a more conducive area (and possibly being more stacked?).... I think we can get a much better view of the end game solution from the NHC and model data. I am holding off on certain plans until I can review this data and subsequent advisories tomorrow evening.
0 likes
Re:
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: You make good reasoning in your posts chaser. I saw the 500mb heights analysis early Wednesday with showed substantial ridging across the western Atlantic basin. I personally am not shocked to see 0Z GFS do a significanrt shift back west and I am expecting EURO to follow suit. I finding it hard to see how there will be any escape for Erika within the next 5 days, and even beyond becuase there is a decent chance Erika could meander and get trapped (ala.. Elena style, 1985) with such a substantial blocking ridge. Interesting days ahead!!
Thanks! Whew, and here I started thinking that maybe it was all that "crap food" affecting my brain, lol. Wow, I hadn't thought about Elena, but an interesting analogy given the apparent blocking pattern. Mind you, I would'nt want to begrudge Jax from it's own share of Erika fun

0 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Has the ful-res GFS updated to include landfall intensity yet? The entire tropicaltidbits site has stopped loading pictures for me now.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests