ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[sponger]

Probably from 40,000 people hitting refresh!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If that is true then the run may be a some sue as far as track, to compare with the others.

[ericinmia]

Probably from 40,000 people hitting refresh!

refresh

Refresh

REFRESH!!!!

REFRESHHHHH!!!!!!!!!



BTW, all my refresh's work fine.

[blp]

Probably from 40,000 people hitting refresh!

refresh

Refresh

REFRESH!!!!

REFRESHHHHH!!!!!!!!!



BTW, all my refresh's work fine.

The HWRF takes longer. That whole run won't be complete until 2am.

[AutoPenalti]

Now wait for it to shift back east again.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Not a chance going to bed, Brian catch me up tomorrow on the HWRF and EURO.

[northjaxpro]

0Z GFS shows Erika moving inland to near SC/NC border @ 180 hr. It would be a big flooding concern for them if that comes close to verifying with ithe storm's slow N/NE movement.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I mean later today.

[SouthFloridawx]

Why isn't the xtrp model refreshing

[chaser1]

Okay, my 2 cents worth (maybe worth 1 cent - anyone else's call)

I've been scratching my head all day as the updated models have continued to assert that this trough extending down into the Central Gulf, was now suddenly to be the cause of a 594 High Pressure ridge anchored north of Erika to weaken thus causing a more northward turn as Erika were to approach the W. Bahamas. Meanwhile, this trough is not connected from any split flow sub tropical feature from the west, and more importantly seems entirely cut off from the overall Westerlies over the Conus. All this as the forecasted 96 hour Conus 500mb high seems to expand eastward and strengthen thus shoving the 588 line clear north to the Canadian border (and only dropping ESE to the New Jersey Coastline well north of the W. Atlantic 500 high. Of course now we see the GFS 0Z run shift Erika's track a bit westward as a result and we await the EURO for further confirmation of a potentially greater blocking pattern that would suggest greater threat to the Conus.

So...... maybe I've been eating to many Slim Jim's from 7-11 lately and they're simply affecting my sense of reasoning LOL. But as I see the big picture (including the pretty deep mid Atlantic trough digging well to the east), I'm here all day thinking that these models are way overplaying that trough and suddenly discounting a 594 high to the north that seemingly extends to the coast. Even with tonight's 0Z run, I'm looking at the 96 hour 500mb forecast and cant help but think that Baja California has a better chance of seeing Erika, than Bermuda ever will (okay, slight tongue 'n cheek there for sake of making my point). Bottom line is, I don't really give a rat's a#@ how deep Erika might be as she approaches Eastern Cuba, but I truly have a hard time believing that Erika doesn't make it to the E. Gulf and perhaps stall, drift, or even dance a little jig for all I know. I just don't see that pattern with a trough predominately cut off from the Westerlies, serve to erode what should be a building/bridging ridge to Erika's north.

Okay, "Model steering rant" over. The captain has now turned off the seat-belt sign, you may freely move about the cabin...... LOL

[ericinmia]

Probably from 40,000 people hitting refresh!

refresh

Refresh

REFRESH!!!!

REFRESHHHHH!!!!!!!!!



BTW, all my refresh's work fine.

The HWRF takes longer. That whole run won't be complete until 2am.

All joking aside, I know... I lurk more often then post, but I've been around for a while.
But like christmas night for a child, it's hard to go to sleep and miss or even wait for the next 'gift'

[sponger]

Why isn't the xtrp model refreshing

It is always the last to update!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Not totally out of the question, or some where in between. Such as making land fall between Miami and Palm Beach slowly moving NW up the spine or even off the West coat of FLA.

[sponger]

BTW, all my refresh's work fine. [/quote]

The HWRF takes longer. That whole run won't be complete until 2am.[/quote]


All joking aside, I know... I lurk more often then post, but I've been around for a while.
But like christmas night for a child, it's hard to go to sleep and miss or even wait for the next 'gift'[/quote]

Good to see you back!

[northjaxpro]

You make good reasoning in your post Chaser. I saw the 500mb heights analysis early Wednesday with showed substantial ridging across the western Atlantic basin. I personally am not shocked to see 0Z GFS do a significanrt shift back west and I am expecting EURO to follow suit. I finding it hard to see how there will be any escape for Erika within the next 5 days, and even beyond becuase there is a decent chance Erika could meander and get trapped like Hurricane Elena did in 1985, with such a substantial blocking ridge. Interesting days ahead!!

[SouthFloridawx]

Why isn't the xtrp model refreshing

It is always the last to update!

Ohhh I see. I'll wait up and see what happens.

[sponger]

Chaser, you make a great point. Seems like all is in play. NHC must be believing the eastward shift. We will see if their amazing forecasting ability holds up. I can't wait for the 5 pm advisory tomorrow. That will put us within 72 hours of approaching SFL and the accuracy goes up tremendously from there.

[ericinmia]

Chaser, you make a great point. Seems like all is in play. NHC must be believing the eastward shift. We will see if their amazing forecasting ability holds up. I can't wait for the 5 pm advisory tomorrow. That will put us within 72 hours of approaching SFL and the accuracy goes up tremendously from there.

Agreed!

With the 72+ hrs window to Florida, better model data, and Erika entering a more conducive area (and possibly being more stacked?).... I think we can get a much better view of the end game solution from the NHC and model data. I am holding off on certain plans until I can review this data and subsequent advisories tomorrow evening.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: You make good reasoning in your posts chaser. I saw the 500mb heights analysis early Wednesday with showed substantial ridging across the western Atlantic basin. I personally am not shocked to see 0Z GFS do a significanrt shift back west and I am expecting EURO to follow suit. I finding it hard to see how there will be any escape for Erika within the next 5 days, and even beyond becuase there is a decent chance Erika could meander and get trapped (ala.. Elena style, 1985) with such a substantial blocking ridge. Interesting days ahead!!

Thanks! Whew, and here I started thinking that maybe it was all that "crap food" affecting my brain, lol. Wow, I hadn't thought about Elena, but an interesting analogy given the apparent blocking pattern. Mind you, I would'nt want to begrudge Jax from it's own share of Erika fun , but simply think an approach from the WSW seems a bit more logical than from the south........ until of course the models throw something else at us next run.

[Hammy]

Has the ful-res GFS updated to include landfall intensity yet? The entire tropicaltidbits site has stopped loading pictures for me now.