ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1561 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:36 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Looks like the last hour or 2 its heading NNW and getting back on track based on radar

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could be a wobble, doesn't look to be moving all that fast, saved loop: LLC looks to be at 16.7, 63.5

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Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#1562 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:37 pm

weather channel got crew in miami setting up
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#1563 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:38 pm

looks like a vort is possibly ( weak ) forming to the SW... clear curved feature to the low level cloud lines.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1564 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:39 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Looks like the last hour or 2 its heading NNW and getting back on track based on radar

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I don't see it. Most likely convection giving that illusion.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1565 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:40 pm

Could the convection be causing the slowing of the LLC and catching it be indicating lowering shear

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#1566 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:42 pm

I personally do not think this a storm at the moment.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1567 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:42 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Looks like the last hour or 2 its heading NNW and getting back on track based on radar

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I don't see it. Most likely convection giving that illusion.


look at the swirl at 16.7N 63.5W

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1568 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:44 pm

.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1569 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:45 pm

Not sure what recon is calling the center.. matching recon with current sat images their VDM cant be right.. the white circle shows a much more defined wind shift than the VDM in terms of the right wind direction after passing.. the VDM position has NNW wind on the west side followed by a wsw on the east side. also the pressure is lower in the white circle.. very odd...

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Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1570 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:looks like a vort is possibly ( weak ) forming to the SW... clear curved feature to the low level cloud lines.


Wondering if it is spitting out the old LLC to the north and perhaps the one to the SW as Aric mentions will become the dominate LLC? This is where the majority of the deep convection is located ATM.... my unprofessional opinion only
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Re:

#1571 Postby blp » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:45 pm

floridasun78 wrote:weather channel got crew in miami setting up


Lol, that makes me feel good because historically they usually get it wrong and the storm goes somewhere else.
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Re: Re:

#1572 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:46 pm

blp wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:weather channel got crew in miami setting up


Lol, that makes me feel good because historically they usually get it wrong and the storm goes somewhere else.


Well they can start there and go up 95 if necessary, that is probably what they are thinking. Plus Miami is not a bad place to visit ;)

Seems like a good plan.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1573 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:46 pm

HurriGuy wrote:http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBds88.png

ASCAT certainly proves how elongated the circulation is. This was not too long ago.


and thats the swirl i've been looking at as it seems the convection is getting closer to it and not farther, this may stack up by tomorrow if that happens

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1574 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:47 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Looks like the last hour or 2 its heading NNW and getting back on track based on radar

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I don't see it. Most likely convection giving that illusion.


look at the swirl at 16.7N 63.5W

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Just saw it, still it looks more like a wobble than anything else.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1575 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:51 pm

Welp, the ASCAT proves it. The Caribbean vortex is the center.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1576 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:52 pm

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1577 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:55 pm



interesting, this movement more north, although likely temporary, could mean the world of difference if it tracks over Hispaniola or not.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1578 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:56 pm



I'm not so sure I would call that the center.
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#1579 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:59 pm

start look like Floyd track off up florida coast
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1580 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:02 pm

Heres what I see is that the convection is moving towards the center which could mean this is stacking and we may be on our way tonight or tomorrow morning

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