ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looks like the last hour or 2 its heading NNW and getting back on track based on radar

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could be a wobble, doesn't look to be moving all that fast, saved loop: LLC looks to be at 16.7, 63.5

[floridasun78]

weather channel got crew in miami setting up

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a vort is possibly ( weak ) forming to the SW... clear curved feature to the low level cloud lines.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the last hour or 2 its heading NNW and getting back on track based on radar

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I don't see it. Most likely convection giving that illusion.

[Hurricaneman]

Could the convection be causing the slowing of the LLC and catching it be indicating lowering shear

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[HurriGuy]

I personally do not think this a storm at the moment.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the last hour or 2 its heading NNW and getting back on track based on radar

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I don't see it. Most likely convection giving that illusion.

look at the swirl at 16.7N 63.5W

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurriGuy]

.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure what recon is calling the center.. matching recon with current sat images their VDM cant be right.. the white circle shows a much more defined wind shift than the VDM in terms of the right wind direction after passing.. the VDM position has NNW wind on the west side followed by a wsw on the east side. also the pressure is lower in the white circle.. very odd...

[Frank P]

looks like a vort is possibly ( weak ) forming to the SW... clear curved feature to the low level cloud lines.

Wondering if it is spitting out the old LLC to the north and perhaps the one to the SW as Aric mentions will become the dominate LLC? This is where the majority of the deep convection is located ATM.... my unprofessional opinion only

[blp]

weather channel got crew in miami setting up

Lol, that makes me feel good because historically they usually get it wrong and the storm goes somewhere else.

[gatorcane]

weather channel got crew in miami setting up

Lol, that makes me feel good because historically they usually get it wrong and the storm goes somewhere else.

Well they can start there and go up 95 if necessary, that is probably what they are thinking. Plus Miami is not a bad place to visit

Seems like a good plan.

[Hurricaneman]

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBds88.png

ASCAT certainly proves how elongated the circulation is. This was not too long ago.

and thats the swirl i've been looking at as it seems the convection is getting closer to it and not farther, this may stack up by tomorrow if that happens

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[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the last hour or 2 its heading NNW and getting back on track based on radar

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I don't see it. Most likely convection giving that illusion.

look at the swirl at 16.7N 63.5W

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Just saw it, still it looks more like a wobble than anything else.

[Sanibel]

Welp, the ASCAT proves it. The Caribbean vortex is the center.

[tolakram]

longer vis loop showing center moving north. Speed up to make it easier to see.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[gatorcane]

longer vis loop showing center moving north. Speed up to make it easier to see.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

interesting, this movement more north, although likely temporary, could mean the world of difference if it tracks over Hispaniola or not.

[HurriGuy]

longer vis loop showing center moving north. Speed up to make it easier to see.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

I'm not so sure I would call that the center.

[floridasun78]

start look like Floyd track off up florida coast

[Hurricaneman]

Heres what I see is that the convection is moving towards the center which could mean this is stacking and we may be on our way tonight or tomorrow morning

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