ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
The models are good but I think that it is more beneficial to watch what is currently going on with the adjustment of the center and new convection popping. How she dances with PR and DR are going to be crucial to track and intensity. If she tip toes around them and gets north of the islands relatively unscathed then I think we will see intensity forecast start to go up.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The convection is wrapping around the center so its probably going to be stacked by this evening
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes
- Weatherboy1
- Category 5
- Posts: 1189
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL
I doubt we will truly see off-the-charts rapid intensification, should Erika emerge north of Hispanola relatively unscathed. But a decent pick up in strength? Likely, in my opinion, based on what I see in the general area in terms of forecast shear, SSTs, etc. It is even possible Erika could get as high as a mid-range Cat 2 if she slows down, dodges the right land areas, and so on. But that's at the upper end of what I expect.
As always, just my opinion as a semi-educated amateur. Listen to the experts!
As always, just my opinion as a semi-educated amateur. Listen to the experts!
0 likes
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Swirl appears to be near 16.5/63.5 based on visible.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I could be wrong but I think we are seeing an improvement in the overall satellite appearance of Erika. Outflow seems to be starting to improve north of the system.
SFT
SFT
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
- Miami Storm Tracker
- Category 4
- Posts: 910
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
- Location: Key Largo, Fla.
- Contact:
Re:
SouthFLTropics wrote:The models are good but I think that it is more beneficial to watch what is currently going on with the adjustment of the center and new convection popping. How she dances with PR and DR are going to be crucial to track and intensity. If she tip toes around them and gets north of the islands relatively unscathed then I think we will see intensity forecast start to go up.
I agree with you, avoiding most of the land mostly the DR. would allow for a much better chance to intensify.
0 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
This is the best Erika has looked since 50W
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2263
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
- Location: Pensacola, Florida
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SouthFLTropics wrote:I could be wrong but I think we are seeing an improvement in the overall satellite appearance of Erika. Outflow seems to be starting to improve north of the system.
SFT
I was gonna say the same thing, but then I said to myself, noooooo don't do it, because in an hour or two, it'll look just the opposite lol
0 likes
- CourierPR
- Category 5
- Posts: 1335
- Age: 71
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
- Location: Pompano Beach, Florida
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SouthFLTropics wrote:I could be wrong but I think we are seeing an improvement in the overall satellite appearance of Erika. Outflow seems to be starting to improve north of the system.
SFT
My untrained eyes thought as you do. Interesting times ahead these next few days.
0 likes
Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:blp wrote:floridasun78 wrote:weather channel got crew in miami setting up
Lol, that makes me feel good because historically they usually get it wrong and the storm goes somewhere else.
Well they can start there and go up 95 if necessary, that is probably what they are thinking. Plus Miami is not a bad place to visit![]()
Seems like a good plan.
Look out South Beach, The Weather Geeks are Coming!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
In regards to the satellite presentation. One thing that is helping is the outflow on the southeast side. You can clearly see the air being able to escape aiding to the lift in the atmosphere. It lets Erika breathe, and she is able to keep putting out these big burst of convection.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7183
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: Re:
fci wrote:gatorcane wrote:floridasun78 wrote:weather channel got crew in miami setting up
Look out South Beach, The Weather Geeks are Coming!
they can hangout for this monster rolling through then drive up 95 and follow it...

0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20012
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
30 frame all day live loop.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20012
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Storm Relative 1km loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL052015&starting_image=2015AL05_1KMSRVIS_201508271145.GIF
From: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/
From: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2776
- Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
- Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
- Contact:
Re:
gatorcane wrote:Let's put this in some kind or perspective....that is one large system, though still poorly organized!![]()
Potential drought buster for Southern Florida and Puerto Rico at least...hopefully nothing more than that though.
One thing about that loop is if you look at the trough over the GOM it is every so slowly retrograding back to the west... if I am seeing this right and it continues I would think it would certainly aid in a slightly more westerly track as it approaches FL, provided the high in the Atlantic builds .. my untrained opinion only!

0 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
looks to have wobbled NNE into the convection. That will put it back on track
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
man that trough is strong in those model runs, maybe the models or overdoing the trough we shall see, if that trough was coming down to the south erika would be really scary
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10149
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

TAFB 72 HOUR FORECAST...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests