ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

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SouthFLTropics
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#1601 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:48 pm

The models are good but I think that it is more beneficial to watch what is currently going on with the adjustment of the center and new convection popping. How she dances with PR and DR are going to be crucial to track and intensity. If she tip toes around them and gets north of the islands relatively unscathed then I think we will see intensity forecast start to go up.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1602 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:49 pm

The convection is wrapping around the center so its probably going to be stacked by this evening

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#1603 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:49 pm

I doubt we will truly see off-the-charts rapid intensification, should Erika emerge north of Hispanola relatively unscathed. But a decent pick up in strength? Likely, in my opinion, based on what I see in the general area in terms of forecast shear, SSTs, etc. It is even possible Erika could get as high as a mid-range Cat 2 if she slows down, dodges the right land areas, and so on. But that's at the upper end of what I expect.

As always, just my opinion as a semi-educated amateur. Listen to the experts!
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1604 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:50 pm

Image

Swirl appears to be near 16.5/63.5 based on visible.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1605 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:50 pm

I could be wrong but I think we are seeing an improvement in the overall satellite appearance of Erika. Outflow seems to be starting to improve north of the system.

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Re:

#1606 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:51 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:The models are good but I think that it is more beneficial to watch what is currently going on with the adjustment of the center and new convection popping. How she dances with PR and DR are going to be crucial to track and intensity. If she tip toes around them and gets north of the islands relatively unscathed then I think we will see intensity forecast start to go up.


I agree with you, avoiding most of the land mostly the DR. would allow for a much better chance to intensify.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1607 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:52 pm

This is the best Erika has looked since 50W

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1608 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:53 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I could be wrong but I think we are seeing an improvement in the overall satellite appearance of Erika. Outflow seems to be starting to improve north of the system.

SFT



I was gonna say the same thing, but then I said to myself, noooooo don't do it, because in an hour or two, it'll look just the opposite lol
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1609 Postby CourierPR » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:53 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I could be wrong but I think we are seeing an improvement in the overall satellite appearance of Erika. Outflow seems to be starting to improve north of the system.

SFT



My untrained eyes thought as you do. Interesting times ahead these next few days.
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Re: Re:

#1610 Postby fci » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:
blp wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:weather channel got crew in miami setting up


Lol, that makes me feel good because historically they usually get it wrong and the storm goes somewhere else.


Well they can start there and go up 95 if necessary, that is probably what they are thinking. Plus Miami is not a bad place to visit ;)

Seems like a good plan.


Look out South Beach, The Weather Geeks are Coming!
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#1611 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:01 pm

In regards to the satellite presentation. One thing that is helping is the outflow on the southeast side. You can clearly see the air being able to escape aiding to the lift in the atmosphere. It lets Erika breathe, and she is able to keep putting out these big burst of convection.
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Re: Re:

#1612 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:02 pm

fci wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:weather channel got crew in miami setting up




Look out South Beach, The Weather Geeks are Coming!


they can hangout for this monster rolling through then drive up 95 and follow it... :break:
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1613 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:03 pm

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#1614 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:06 pm

Let's put this in some kind or perspective....that is one large system, though still poorly organized! :eek:

Potential drought buster for Southern Florida and Puerto Rico at least...hopefully nothing more than that though.

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1615 Postby caneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:07 pm

It does look to be in a ramp up phase though
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1616 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:08 pm

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Re:

#1617 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:09 pm

gatorcane wrote:Let's put this in some kind or perspective....that is one large system, though still poorly organized! :eek:

Potential drought buster for Southern Florida and Puerto Rico at least...hopefully nothing more than that though.

Image


One thing about that loop is if you look at the trough over the GOM it is every so slowly retrograding back to the west... if I am seeing this right and it continues I would think it would certainly aid in a slightly more westerly track as it approaches FL, provided the high in the Atlantic builds .. my untrained opinion only! :)
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1618 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:10 pm

looks to have wobbled NNE into the convection. That will put it back on track

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1619 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:11 pm

man that trough is strong in those model runs, maybe the models or overdoing the trough we shall see, if that trough was coming down to the south erika would be really scary
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1620 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:11 pm

Image
TAFB 72 HOUR FORECAST...
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