ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

you can see the outer bands in puerto rico. fast moving showers out of the n.e.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... a&loop=yes

Also on the long range radar you can see the rain shield of the new flareup over the Antilles

[OuterBanker]

As always recon will be interesting. Will they find a relocated center north and aligned. I kinda wished this morning that it would stay west and die just like Erika in 2009 (almost the exact same position and projected path). Even the date is close. . And Dennis also died on a west path. But, again this afternoon she has seemed to rally. She seems to move to critical care every evening and rally. Someone needs to pull the plug. Labor day week is coming up and we don't need anything to scare away the tourists.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hot tower firing directly over the LLC (or one of them). Erika is getting her act together... She heard all of you who were writing her off...

[SunnyThoughts]

Hot tower firing directly over the LLC (or one of them). Erika is getting her act together... She heard all of you who were writing her off...

I believe there is a plane in there now, or will be shortly. Hopefully we will get an idea if she is indeed getting her act together.

[AdamFirst]

Hot tower firing directly over the LLC (or one of them). Erika is getting her act together... She heard all of you who were writing her off...

It was unrealistic to expect degeneration so abruptly. It is a stronger circulation and much larger than Danny's ever was. Danny was essentially a soda can going into an industrial shredder

[Aric Dunn]

convection building to the north of the center for the first time,

[AutoPenalti]

Erika is on the brink of intensifying.

[USTropics]

That is essentially the main difference between Erika and Danny. Erika has such a large swath of convection to work with that she's able to spit out multiple vortices at the low level despite the shear. Once Danny's main LLC was disrupted it was unable to sustain any convection due to his small size.

[gatorcane]

new track:

[Hammy]

If nothing else, the slower movement has brought a halt to the self-induced shear.

Edit: Interesting that there is no mention of the Euro in the 5pm discussion.

[AutoPenalti]

Slight shift to the west.

[ozonepete]

Looks like it could be ready for take-off. Mid-level RH really good and shear dropping noticeably. And when you see a TS building good convection over the LLC during DMIN, look out.

[Sanibel]

And when you see a TS building good convection over the LLC during DMIN, look out.

Not a system you would want to see get into open waters on a track to Florida.

[fci]

While not historically a big fan, TWC is actually doing a really good job of explaining in detail all of the variables at play with Erika. Even going so far as to explain the llc/mlc trouble she has been having. They also explained the new convection popping near the llc as a sign of organization along with shear developments. At any rate I thought I'd give credit where credit is due. Bryan Norcross was giving the breakdown and explained some of the more complicated aspects in layman's terms.

After John Hope was gone from TWC I think they struggled although Steve Lyons was pretty good with some real misses though (Jeanne).
When they use "staff" as experts they are weak.
Bryan Norcross is a pro, an expert and awesome.

[NDG]

Based on the radar I have the LLC centered at 16.6N & 63.3W
Convection trying to wrap around the LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it could be ready for take-off. Mid-level RH really good and shear dropping noticeably. And when you see a TS building good convection over the LLC during DMIN, look out.

]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/wvmid%20cimss%202015-08-27%201800.gif_zpswjbvxm8i.jpeg

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http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/sat%20rgb%202015-08-27%202015%20-%20anno_zpsqjdi7u6i.gif

adding to that,,,


center..

[ozonepete]

And when you see a TS building good convection over the LLC during DMIN, look out.

Not a system you would want to see get into open waters on a track to Florida.

Exactly. Although I forgot to mention that obviously land interaction will be critical. Sometimes they go over PR with little disruption, but sometimes not. Hard to forecast.l

[Hammy]

I do have to make a correction about the swirl not being the LLC: as per Google Earth, apparently that was an upper air mission (the one ongoing) that showed easterly winds south of the swirl, and likely the beginning stages of western outflow.

[Blown Away]

From 5pm Disco... Because of the marginal upper-level wind environment and potential
interaction with land over the next few days, there is unusually
high uncertainty in the forecast intensity, especially at days 3 to
5.

Crazy, intensity models are weak TS to Cat 5... All over the place...

[psyclone]

that's yet another forecast cycle showing a slow grind up the east coast of fl as a hurricane...not a comforting thought for east coasters..