ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF starting to not look so hot around 39 hours...I think conditions downstream aren't going to be as favorable as once thought.

[ROCK]

I've been tracking this for a long time. I've asked tons of questions on here. The storm looks weak and from what thinking is.. It might not make it. I was going to prepare tomorrow. But now I don't need to because the storm is a mess! Looks like my part of FL is getting nothing. Thanks everyone . If anything changes let us know.
WeatherLover12- Not a pro met.. Just a citizen

Ps: if another storm is said to target FL.. I will not take it seriously. I & my town are tired of wasting money. Thank you all

That's a pretty foolish thing to say. Always be prepared. You never know what has never happened before. If you don't prepare and get hit, you'll feel foolish. Better to be prepared and be wrong, than a fool and suggest others not to worry, and then be responsible for that. It's all perspective. Just be safe. You should have a kit ready anyway.

I have a bug out kit....for all kinds of things...Hurricanes, Zombies, you name it...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So some are saying it is not going to be much of a storm
What are your thoughts now?

its a wait a see sort of thing....land interaction, another center, got to wait it out and hope for the best outcome...

Hey ROCK been a while. Good to see you back around posting again. Oh how things have changed since the good ole days

[SouthFloridawx]

I'd rather suggest to be prepared 1,000 times and nothing happen, than one time not, and disaster.

[Evil Jeremy]

00z UKMET has Erika cut through the Florida Straits (runs over Key West), turn north a safe distance from the Florida west coast, and landfall around the Big Bend

With the GFS run tonight, and the 12z Euro the three are in some form or fashion similar. If you want consensus and not splitting hairs, you're a happy camper with the result of the runs.

To be honest at this point, I'm not putting much faith in the models. This is a Florida situation, that's for sure. Whether that's up Florida's east coast, west coast, or in the middle, and how strong it is, it all comes down to how Erika fares over the next 24 hours, with it's reorganization and island interaction.

Right now, it's a waiting game.

[tolakram]

Please don't feed the trolls people.

Interesting run, even with the plane data the track doesn't change much but the upper air looks unfavorable for strengthening?

[Evil Jeremy]

Through 48 hours, HWRF is about 2 degrees NE of the last run.

[floridasun78]

could new low form east puerto rico ?? because other low running alway fast

[SouthFLTropics]

54 hours between Andros Island and Cuba and organizing slightly.

[Bocadude85]

54 hours between Andros Island and Cuba and organizing slightly.

This run might end up south of the keys at this rate.

[Hurricaneman]

could new low form east puerto rico ?? because other low running alway fast

most definitely could and all the 0z model runs would have to be thrown in the trash but as of right now we don't really have a real definable center so we'll see what recon shows later and it finds a low farther ESE then the models would have to shift east so its pretty much throw a dart and thats the starting point right now

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[ROCK]

So some are saying it is not going to be much of a storm
What are your thoughts now?

its a wait a see sort of thing....land interaction, another center, got to wait it out and hope for the best outcome...

Hey ROCK been a while. Good to see you back around posting again. Oh how things have changed since the good ole days

Hey Mike...nice to see you as well. been a long time...we have all grown old together...lol...11 yrs I have been on this site. I have seen all types of storms and this reminds me of Ernesto to be honest.....a hot mess

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 60...headed for extreme South Florida as a hot mess...looks sloppy...however, further East than 18z and is stronger, but not by much.

[tolakram]

It's twins!

[tolakram]

A few saved images from the GFS 0Z notastorm run

[SouthFLTropics]

It's twins!

I think that the multiple vorts may be Erika's problem all along. She just can't consolidate herself into one center. She has multiple personalities.

[ROCK]

I think the EURO should help (maybe) in a few hours...but you night owls can have it...lol

[tolakram]

The HWRF picked up something last run ... did the plane data make it into the HWRF by 18Z? To go from a Hurricane to nothing in a single run ... something changed.

[ROCK]

It's twins!

I think that the multiple vorts may be Erika's problem all along. She just can't consolidate herself into one center. She has multiple personalities.

yep just like my ex wife....

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow: I think the EURO should help (maybe) in a few hours...but you night owls can have it...lol

I don't think so...I've had enough of Erika for one day. This chick is driving me batty!