ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
HWRF starting to not look so hot around 39 hours...I think conditions downstream aren't going to be as favorable as once thought.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
SouthFloridawx wrote:Weatherlover12 wrote:I've been tracking this for a long time. I've asked tons of questions on here. The storm looks weak and from what thinking is.. It might not make it. I was going to prepare tomorrow. But now I don't need to because the storm is a mess! Looks like my part of FL is getting nothing. Thanks everyone . If anything changes let us know.
WeatherLover12- Not a pro met.. Just a citizen
Ps: if another storm is said to target FL.. I will not take it seriously. I & my town are tired of wasting money. Thank you all
That's a pretty foolish thing to say. Always be prepared. You never know what has never happened before. If you don't prepare and get hit, you'll feel foolish. Better to be prepared and be wrong, than a fool and suggest others not to worry, and then be responsible for that. It's all perspective. Just be safe. You should have a kit ready anyway.
I have a bug out kit....for all kinds of things...Hurricanes, Zombies, you name it...

0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2183
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
- Location: Gonzales, LA
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
ROCK wrote:emeraldislenc wrote:So some are saying it is not going to be much of a storm
What are your thoughts now?
its a wait a see sort of thing....land interaction, another center, got to wait it out and hope for the best outcome...
Hey ROCK been a while. Good to see you back around posting again. Oh how things have changed since the good ole days
0 likes
- SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
- Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Ntxw wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote:00z UKMET has Erika cut through the Florida Straits (runs over Key West), turn north a safe distance from the Florida west coast, and landfall around the Big Bend
With the GFS run tonight, and the 12z Euro the three are in some form or fashion similar. If you want consensus and not splitting hairs, you're a happy camper with the result of the runs.
To be honest at this point, I'm not putting much faith in the models. This is a Florida situation, that's for sure. Whether that's up Florida's east coast, west coast, or in the middle, and how strong it is, it all comes down to how Erika fares over the next 24 hours, with it's reorganization and island interaction.
Right now, it's a waiting game.
0 likes
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Please don't feed the trolls people.
Interesting run, even with the plane data the track doesn't change much but the upper air looks unfavorable for strengthening?
Interesting run, even with the plane data the track doesn't change much but the upper air looks unfavorable for strengthening?
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Through 48 hours, HWRF is about 2 degrees NE of the last run.
0 likes
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2991
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re:
SouthFLTropics wrote:54 hours between Andros Island and Cuba and organizing slightly.
This run might end up south of the keys at this rate.
0 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re:
floridasun78 wrote:could new low form east puerto rico ?? because other low running alway fast
most definitely could and all the 0z model runs would have to be thrown in the trash but as of right now we don't really have a real definable center so we'll see what recon shows later and it finds a low farther ESE then the models would have to shift east so its pretty much throw a dart and thats the starting point right now
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:ROCK wrote:emeraldislenc wrote:So some are saying it is not going to be much of a storm
What are your thoughts now?
its a wait a see sort of thing....land interaction, another center, got to wait it out and hope for the best outcome...
Hey ROCK been a while. Good to see you back around posting again. Oh how things have changed since the good ole days
Hey Mike...nice to see you as well. been a long time...we have all grown old together...lol...11 yrs I have been on this site. I have seen all types of storms and this reminds me of Ernesto to be honest.....a hot mess
0 likes
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Hour 60...headed for extreme South Florida as a hot mess...looks sloppy...however, further East than 18z and is stronger, but not by much.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
It's twins!


0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
A few saved images from the GFS 0Z notastorm run








0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
tolakram wrote:It's twins!
I think that the multiple vorts may be Erika's problem all along. She just can't consolidate herself into one center. She has multiple personalities.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models


0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
The HWRF picked up something last run ... did the plane data make it into the HWRF by 18Z? To go from a Hurricane to nothing in a single run ... something changed.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:tolakram wrote:It's twins!
I think that the multiple vorts may be Erika's problem all along. She just can't consolidate herself into one center. She has multiple personalities.
yep just like my ex wife....

0 likes
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
ROCK wrote::uarrow:I think the EURO should help (maybe) in a few hours...but you night owls can have it...lol
I don't think so...I've had enough of Erika for one day. This chick is driving me batty!

0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests