ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Can someone post a graphic of the MLC location and a loop...

[AutoPenalti]

could the gfdl have been right all along?

No.

[tgenius]

So the question is with the proximity to SFL, would the watches go up at 11pm or would they wait until 5am (of course assuming something developed) in which case people would wake up to being in a watch?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Very nice conditions in the Bahamas. Could get interesting.

Erika's movement does not support the cyclone reaching the Bahamas. It should pass over Cuba and into the eastern Gulf, where upper-level winds are much less favorable.

However, that map shows how ideal conditions were in the Bahamas and why we were worried if Erika made it there.

[hurricanedude]

dont say no just yet

[drezee]

18 inches of rain in two hours....pray 4 Haiti
http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... 828/mdaily

The winds, temp, etc still seems like a squall line

[tolakram]

I hate to be the downer here but I think looks are deceiving.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

It's getting that look Danny did just before it washed out. LLC is probably gone, and the mid level will most likely poof by morning. Just my opinion.

[CronkPSU]

So the question is with the proximity to SFL, would the watches go up at 11pm or would they wait until 5am (of course assuming something developed) in which case people would wake up to being in a watch?

May as well wait til 5AM and see if it really develops, the 6 hours will not cost anyone any storm prep time

[Jevo]

So the question is with the proximity to SFL, would the watches go up at 11pm or would they wait until 5am (of course assuming something developed) in which case people would wake up to being in a watch?

I would say not at this point. We still don't know what this is, if anything. I'm sure they are looking closely at it, but even a 5am advisory is a long enough time for watches and prep if indeed it turns out to be something.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Very nice conditions in the Bahamas. Could get interesting.

Erika's movement does not support the cyclone reaching the Bahamas. It should pass over Cuba and into the eastern Gulf, where upper-level winds are much less favorable.

However, that map shows how ideal conditions were in the Bahamas and why we were worried if Erika made it there.

If it's better organized quicker then the models have shown it would be more poleward.

[Evil Jeremy]

So the question is with the proximity to SFL, would the watches go up at 11pm or would they wait until 5am (of course assuming something developed) in which case people would wake up to being in a watch?

To be honest..... The NHC explicitly said they were foregoing the standard Tropical Storm Watch timeframe due to Erika's uncertainty. The uncertainty is still there. Should they be needed tomorrow, I can see the NHC skipping watches and issuing TS Warnings, once Erika's current situation is sorted out.

[Hammy]

Once thing to note Port-au-Prince is reporting wnw winds showing that the LLC is just north or north northeast of there. Interesting developments

There you go. If you are correct (I didn't check that station yet) this is some first surface evidence that an LLC may be forming under the MLC and a wnw jog is commencing.

Is there any chance if this reorganizes due to land interaction (something I never thought I'd say) that it could clip or miss Cuba and still miss Florida to the east?

[hurricanedude]

hammy gfdl would say yes

[alienstorm]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

If you look at the loop you can see the west wind indicator

[northjaxpro]

If indeed that is the MLC, it would not take much of a convective flare-up over open water to mix that circulation down to the surface, this may be a new ball game folks if it is indeed a MLC. We will find out over the next 12-18 hours if we see convection increase as the system pulls away from Hispaniola.

Also, my prayers to all in Haiti and DR as I am sure they are getting pounded by extremely heavy rainfall which unfortunately is going to lead to massive mudslides on that island. Erika is a deadly storm, with over 20 people losing their lives in the devastating flooding in Dominica, and now in Hispaniola, and she is not done yet folks. There is a real possibilty Erika could be around for many days to come if she can find her legs and really get going next 24 hours.

[robbielyn]

So the question is with the proximity to SFL, would the watches go up at 11pm or would they wait until 5am (of course assuming something developed) in which case people would wake up to being in a watch?

I would say not at this point. We still don't know what this is, if anything. I'm sure they are looking closely at it, but even a 5am advisory is a long enough time for watches and prep if indeed it turns out to be something.

hence the reason why there should only be a three day cone which is far more accurate than a five day cone so people dont get complacent due to the cried wolf effect. saying a hurricane is coming 5 days out just to be a depression or open wave in the end, causes people to get frustrated and confused then not take it too seriously. 3 days is plenty of time. its way more lead time than tornadoes.

[hurricanedude]

the center will be off shore in about 3 hours am i correct?

[drewschmaltz]

I hate to be the downer here but I think looks are deceiving.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

It's getting that look Danny did just before it washed out. LLC is probably gone, and the mid level will most likely poof by morning. Just my opinion.

I don't get it, what about this graphic makes it look like it's going to go poof to you? I'm asking because I honestly don't know. To me, it looks like Hispanola cut off a little piece of orange spinning stuff and sent it racing towards the wnw above DR but the COC kept doing it's thing... Teach me.

[SootyTern]

18 inches of rain in two hours....pray 4 Haiti
http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... 828/mdaily

The winds, temp, etc still seems like a squall line

Sobering and heartbreaking news. This can't end well.

[blp]

Check out this site several west and sw winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/ht/pignon