ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2721 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Can someone post a graphic of the MLC location and a loop...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2722 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:06 pm

hurricanedude wrote:could the gfdl have been right all along?

No.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2723 Postby tgenius » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:06 pm

So the question is with the proximity to SFL, would the watches go up at 11pm or would they wait until 5am (of course assuming something developed) in which case people would wake up to being in a watch?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2724 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:07 pm

blp wrote:Very nice conditions in the Bahamas. Could get interesting.

Image

Erika's movement does not support the cyclone reaching the Bahamas. It should pass over Cuba and into the eastern Gulf, where upper-level winds are much less favorable.

However, that map shows how ideal conditions were in the Bahamas and why we were worried if Erika made it there.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2725 Postby hurricanedude » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:08 pm

dont say no just yet
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#2726 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:08 pm

18 inches of rain in two hours....pray 4 Haiti
http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... 828/mdaily

The winds, temp, etc still seems like a squall line
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2727 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:08 pm

I hate to be the downer here but I think looks are deceiving.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

It's getting that look Danny did just before it washed out. LLC is probably gone, and the mid level will most likely poof by morning. Just my opinion. :)
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2728 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:08 pm

tgenius wrote:So the question is with the proximity to SFL, would the watches go up at 11pm or would they wait until 5am (of course assuming something developed) in which case people would wake up to being in a watch?



May as well wait til 5AM and see if it really develops, the 6 hours will not cost anyone any storm prep time
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2729 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:08 pm

tgenius wrote:So the question is with the proximity to SFL, would the watches go up at 11pm or would they wait until 5am (of course assuming something developed) in which case people would wake up to being in a watch?


I would say not at this point. We still don't know what this is, if anything. I'm sure they are looking closely at it, but even a 5am advisory is a long enough time for watches and prep if indeed it turns out to be something.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2730 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:09 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
blp wrote:Very nice conditions in the Bahamas. Could get interesting.

Image

Erika's movement does not support the cyclone reaching the Bahamas. It should pass over Cuba and into the eastern Gulf, where upper-level winds are much less favorable.

However, that map shows how ideal conditions were in the Bahamas and why we were worried if Erika made it there.

If it's better organized quicker then the models have shown it would be more poleward.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2731 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:09 pm

tgenius wrote:So the question is with the proximity to SFL, would the watches go up at 11pm or would they wait until 5am (of course assuming something developed) in which case people would wake up to being in a watch?


To be honest..... The NHC explicitly said they were foregoing the standard Tropical Storm Watch timeframe due to Erika's uncertainty. The uncertainty is still there. Should they be needed tomorrow, I can see the NHC skipping watches and issuing TS Warnings, once Erika's current situation is sorted out.
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Re: Re:

#2732 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:10 pm

ozonepete wrote:
alienstorm wrote:Once thing to note Port-au-Prince is reporting wnw winds showing that the LLC is just north or north northeast of there. Interesting developments


There you go. If you are correct (I didn't check that station yet) this is some first surface evidence that an LLC may be forming under the MLC and a wnw jog is commencing.


Is there any chance if this reorganizes due to land interaction (something I never thought I'd say) that it could clip or miss Cuba and still miss Florida to the east?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2733 Postby hurricanedude » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:12 pm

hammy gfdl would say yes
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#2734 Postby alienstorm » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:13 pm

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

If you look at the loop you can see the west wind indicator
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#2735 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:14 pm

If indeed that is the MLC, it would not take much of a convective flare-up over open water to mix that circulation down to the surface, this may be a new ball game folks if it is indeed a MLC. We will find out over the next 12-18 hours if we see convection increase as the system pulls away from Hispaniola.

Also, my prayers to all in Haiti and DR as I am sure they are getting pounded by extremely heavy rainfall which unfortunately is going to lead to massive mudslides on that island. Erika is a deadly storm, with over 20 people losing their lives in the devastating flooding in Dominica, and now in Hispaniola, and she is not done yet folks. There is a real possibilty Erika could be around for many days to come if she can find her legs and really get going next 24 hours.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2736 Postby robbielyn » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:16 pm

Jevo wrote:
tgenius wrote:So the question is with the proximity to SFL, would the watches go up at 11pm or would they wait until 5am (of course assuming something developed) in which case people would wake up to being in a watch?


I would say not at this point. We still don't know what this is, if anything. I'm sure they are looking closely at it, but even a 5am advisory is a long enough time for watches and prep if indeed it turns out to be something.

hence the reason why there should only be a three day cone which is far more accurate than a five day cone so people dont get complacent due to the cried wolf effect. saying a hurricane is coming 5 days out just to be a depression or open wave in the end, causes people to get frustrated and confused then not take it too seriously. 3 days is plenty of time. its way more lead time than tornadoes.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2737 Postby hurricanedude » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:16 pm

the center will be off shore in about 3 hours am i correct?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2738 Postby drewschmaltz » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:17 pm

tolakram wrote:I hate to be the downer here but I think looks are deceiving.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

It's getting that look Danny did just before it washed out. LLC is probably gone, and the mid level will most likely poof by morning. Just my opinion. :)


I don't get it, what about this graphic makes it look like it's going to go poof to you? I'm asking because I honestly don't know. To me, it looks like Hispanola cut off a little piece of orange spinning stuff and sent it racing towards the wnw above DR but the COC kept doing it's thing... Teach me.
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Re:

#2739 Postby SootyTern » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:17 pm

drezee wrote:18 inches of rain in two hours....pray 4 Haiti
http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... 828/mdaily

The winds, temp, etc still seems like a squall line


Sobering and heartbreaking news. This can't end well.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2740 Postby blp » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:18 pm

Check out this site several west and sw winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/ht/pignon
Last edited by blp on Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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