Florida Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#9901 Postby StormingB81 » Sun Aug 30, 2015 11:32 am

In de Orlando there is drains that still have water coming out of them. Of we get the forecasted 3-5" of rain it could be ugly in some areas
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4770
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

#9902 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 30, 2015 11:52 am

we're getting a good amount of sun here so I expect the atmosphere to really roll over later...someone's likely to get 3"+ it's just a question of who but the wheel of convective misfortune is in motion.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#9903 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 30, 2015 12:37 pm

Well, so far I have measured over 3 inches of rainfall for this event beginning yesterday. I know there are areas farther down state that has received at least 5-6 inches, possibly more since yesterday. Looks like many areas are headed to get potentionally a total of a foot of rain at the minimum up through mid-week, and I may be underestimating that potential. I likely am sure of that before this event is done.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#9904 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 30, 2015 12:54 pm

Image


We are getting a reprieve here in Jax today and across North Florida as the ULL is pivoting northeast across the Southeast U.S. You can see the ULL main axis currently across Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A nice dry slot as come in to the Northern Florida area with the ULL pivoting through. A rather large area of dry air from the west and southwest across the GOM except for the extreme SE GOM of course.

Look at the moisture pinned down across the central and southern peninsula and down in the SE GOM south to the Caribbean. All of that moisture will ride north over the next 72 hours. We are likely going to see some unbelievable rain totals before this week ends across the state. I think the drought you guys have had down across Southeast Florida will be a thing of the past with certainty after this event ends.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#9905 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 30, 2015 1:40 pm

Hope you are right northjaxpro. While we have received some rain from this event at my locale in East Boca Raton, we have not received as much as I had hoped, certainly, no drought buster yet!. The ULL is very discernible in that WV loop you posted and also where the dry air line begins. I am hoping it can start pumping in some more rain into my locale over the next day or two.
0 likes   

SouthFloridian92
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 120
Age: 32
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:50 pm
Location: Sebring, Florida

#9906 Postby SouthFloridian92 » Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:34 am

Where is all of this rain supposed to be coming from? I've looked at the radar and it looks pretty dry.
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

#9907 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:47 pm

There is no consolidated rain coming. Just some morning and late afternoon showers on the breeze. High pressure taking control. Possibly through labor day weekend.

Sea breezes will be the main
players late this week into this weekend over South Florida with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#9908 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:13 pm

I was quite surprised we had flood warnings to begin with. It was pretty clear that after Sat. night's rain, not much else was coming just by looking at the SAT loops and radar. Maybe the models were showing something different but yet again they busted.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15463
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#9909 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:53 pm

It has been coming down in the Orlando area this afternoon, off and on heavy rains & lots of lightning since 5:30 this afternoon in my neighborhood.

Image
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

#9910 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:35 am

Will it be a stormy labor day weekend or just afternoon showers. Euro says stormy. Gfs says some rain. I'm betting on the GFS this time.

The European model (ecmwf) on the
other hand cuts off a low from the main flow and develops a strong
low over the southeast states and sags it towards North Florida
which would destabilize the atmosphere across South Florida. At
any rate, which ever model verifies they both agree this will
leave South Florida in a deep southwesterly flow concentrating
thunderstorm activity along the East Coast for the weekend into
early next week. Some of the storms could become strong especially
if the European model (ecmwf) has the better solution to the evolution of the
overall pattern.
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1924
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: Florida Weather

#9911 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:10 pm

For some reason it seems that the last few weeks in Orlando have been unusually hot. The heat index has been getting about 100 on a regular basis when the clouds are not there to save the day. Why has the humidity been so much higher than usual during the middle of the day? It feels more tropical than usual if that makes sense.
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

#9912 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Sep 02, 2015 5:54 pm

Yep. been the same down here. I'm sure you'll get the rain real soon. Trof will effect you way more then S.Fl. this weekend.


By late in the weekend through the early part of next week...upper
ridging is expected to break down as a broad 500 mb trough digs
southward through the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. This will usher in a more southwesterly middle level flow.
Models also hint at slightly drier air pushing into the area
during this time frame which will do little more than decrease
probability of precipitation slightly for the early to middle week time frame next week.

&&
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

SouthFloridian92
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 120
Age: 32
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:50 pm
Location: Sebring, Florida

#9913 Postby SouthFloridian92 » Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:12 am

High temp forecasts are finally starting to drop down into the mid and upper 80s! It's going to be a cool one for us Floridians next week! lol
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15463
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#9914 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:16 am

:uarrow: Some parts of central FL, north of I-4, maybe lucky and have dewpoints fall down into the 50s Monday morning, but it will only last just a few hours.
A very wet pattern seems to return next week as the remnants of Grace track into the eastern GOM and gets wring out by an UL trough over the central GOM, the combination between her left over moisture along with easterly converging winds looks to bring a wet pattern yet again for FL.
We need a whole month to dry out.
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#9915 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:24 am

Made it down to 72 degrees this morning in NW St. Pete with a min dew point of 69.

Records in Jax, Marianna, and Apalachicola. Just a degree off in Tallahassee.

40's on the wunderground maps in Mossy Head, Defuniak Springs, and at Crestview. Crestview hit 49 at the airport.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re:

#9916 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:28 pm

JonathanBelles wrote:Made it down to 72 degrees this morning in NW St. Pete with a min dew point of 69.

Records in Jax, Marianna, and Apalachicola. Just a degree off in Tallahassee.

40's on the wunderground maps in Mossy Head, Defuniak Springs, and at Crestview. Crestview hit 49 at the airport.



It got down to 59 degrees at my locale earlier today and it really was refreshing. A sure sign that summer is just about over and the Fall/Winter is just around the corner!!
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15463
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#9917 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:35 pm

Wow, got 2.5" of rain this afternoon in my area in about an hour. It was like a monsoon.
Models are showing any where from 3-7" of additional rain over the next 3 days.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22793
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#9918 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:51 pm

And to think fall and winter is when El Nino really kicks in with the wet weather for Florida.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15463
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re:

#9919 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:And to think fall and winter is when El Nino really kicks in with the wet weather for Florida.


Hopefully that will not be the case, with the ground so saturated from the summer rains it could be an ugly flooding fall & winter for FL.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22793
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Re:

#9920 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:50 pm

NDG wrote:
Ntxw wrote:And to think fall and winter is when El Nino really kicks in with the wet weather for Florida.


Hopefully that will not be the case, with the ground so saturated from the summer rains it could be an ugly flooding fall & winter for FL.


We should see a lot of cut off lows crossing the southern states and the tail end will often cross Florida of occluding lows come October, November, and December. Long range OLR has a hose aimed from the dateline across the SW US and at Florida. It will only strengthen with the seasonal jet getting stronger.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K



Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: wxman22 and 55 guests