Florida Weather

[StormingB81]

In de Orlando there is drains that still have water coming out of them. Of we get the forecasted 3-5" of rain it could be ugly in some areas

[psyclone]

we're getting a good amount of sun here so I expect the atmosphere to really roll over later...someone's likely to get 3"+ it's just a question of who but the wheel of convective misfortune is in motion.

[northjaxpro]

Well, so far I have measured over 3 inches of rainfall for this event beginning yesterday. I know there are areas farther down state that has received at least 5-6 inches, possibly more since yesterday. Looks like many areas are headed to get potentionally a total of a foot of rain at the minimum up through mid-week, and I may be underestimating that potential. I likely am sure of that before this event is done.

[northjaxpro]

We are getting a reprieve here in Jax today and across North Florida as the ULL is pivoting northeast across the Southeast U.S. You can see the ULL main axis currently across Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A nice dry slot as come in to the Northern Florida area with the ULL pivoting through. A rather large area of dry air from the west and southwest across the GOM except for the extreme SE GOM of course.

Look at the moisture pinned down across the central and southern peninsula and down in the SE GOM south to the Caribbean. All of that moisture will ride north over the next 72 hours. We are likely going to see some unbelievable rain totals before this week ends across the state. I think the drought you guys have had down across Southeast Florida will be a thing of the past with certainty after this event ends.

[gatorcane]

Hope you are right northjaxpro. While we have received some rain from this event at my locale in East Boca Raton, we have not received as much as I had hoped, certainly, no drought buster yet!. The ULL is very discernible in that WV loop you posted and also where the dry air line begins. I am hoping it can start pumping in some more rain into my locale over the next day or two.

[SouthFloridian92]

Where is all of this rain supposed to be coming from? I've looked at the radar and it looks pretty dry.

[HURRICANELONNY]

There is no consolidated rain coming. Just some morning and late afternoon showers on the breeze. High pressure taking control. Possibly through labor day weekend.

Sea breezes will be the main
players late this week into this weekend over South Florida with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

[gatorcane]

I was quite surprised we had flood warnings to begin with. It was pretty clear that after Sat. night's rain, not much else was coming just by looking at the SAT loops and radar. Maybe the models were showing something different but yet again they busted.

[NDG]

It has been coming down in the Orlando area this afternoon, off and on heavy rains & lots of lightning since 5:30 this afternoon in my neighborhood.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Will it be a stormy labor day weekend or just afternoon showers. Euro says stormy. Gfs says some rain. I'm betting on the GFS this time.

The European model (ecmwf) on the
other hand cuts off a low from the main flow and develops a strong
low over the southeast states and sags it towards North Florida
which would destabilize the atmosphere across South Florida. At
any rate, which ever model verifies they both agree this will
leave South Florida in a deep southwesterly flow concentrating
thunderstorm activity along the East Coast for the weekend into
early next week. Some of the storms could become strong especially
if the European model (ecmwf) has the better solution to the evolution of the
overall pattern.

[otowntiger]

For some reason it seems that the last few weeks in Orlando have been unusually hot. The heat index has been getting about 100 on a regular basis when the clouds are not there to save the day. Why has the humidity been so much higher than usual during the middle of the day? It feels more tropical than usual if that makes sense.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep. been the same down here. I'm sure you'll get the rain real soon. Trof will effect you way more then S.Fl. this weekend.


By late in the weekend through the early part of next week...upper
ridging is expected to break down as a broad 500 mb trough digs
southward through the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. This will usher in a more southwesterly middle level flow.
Models also hint at slightly drier air pushing into the area
during this time frame which will do little more than decrease
probability of precipitation slightly for the early to middle week time frame next week.

&&

[SouthFloridian92]

High temp forecasts are finally starting to drop down into the mid and upper 80s! It's going to be a cool one for us Floridians next week! lol

[NDG]

Some parts of central FL, north of I-4, maybe lucky and have dewpoints fall down into the 50s Monday morning, but it will only last just a few hours.
A very wet pattern seems to return next week as the remnants of Grace track into the eastern GOM and gets wring out by an UL trough over the central GOM, the combination between her left over moisture along with easterly converging winds looks to bring a wet pattern yet again for FL.
We need a whole month to dry out.

[JonathanBelles]

Made it down to 72 degrees this morning in NW St. Pete with a min dew point of 69.

Records in Jax, Marianna, and Apalachicola. Just a degree off in Tallahassee.

40's on the wunderground maps in Mossy Head, Defuniak Springs, and at Crestview. Crestview hit 49 at the airport.

[northjaxpro]

Made it down to 72 degrees this morning in NW St. Pete with a min dew point of 69.

Records in Jax, Marianna, and Apalachicola. Just a degree off in Tallahassee.

40's on the wunderground maps in Mossy Head, Defuniak Springs, and at Crestview. Crestview hit 49 at the airport.

It got down to 59 degrees at my locale earlier today and it really was refreshing. A sure sign that summer is just about over and the Fall/Winter is just around the corner!!

[NDG]

Wow, got 2.5" of rain this afternoon in my area in about an hour. It was like a monsoon.
Models are showing any where from 3-7" of additional rain over the next 3 days.

[Ntxw]

And to think fall and winter is when El Nino really kicks in with the wet weather for Florida.

[NDG]

And to think fall and winter is when El Nino really kicks in with the wet weather for Florida.

Hopefully that will not be the case, with the ground so saturated from the summer rains it could be an ugly flooding fall & winter for FL.

[Ntxw]

And to think fall and winter is when El Nino really kicks in with the wet weather for Florida.

Hopefully that will not be the case, with the ground so saturated from the summer rains it could be an ugly flooding fall & winter for FL.

We should see a lot of cut off lows crossing the southern states and the tail end will often cross Florida of occluding lows come October, November, and December. Long range OLR has a hose aimed from the dateline across the SW US and at Florida. It will only strengthen with the seasonal jet getting stronger.