2015 Global model runs discussion

Hammy · #1041 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 10:31 pm

blp wrote:Almost all the ensembles onboard with something happening.

-IF- this were to happen (I have strong doubts this far out) would this likely be a subtropical system, and would there also be a good amount of rain for the southeast?

#1042 Postby **LarryWx** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 11:34 pm

Possibly ST and likely heavy rains for a part of the SE.

Per the 0Z Mon GFS as of early on 9/29, it has the GOM low the strongest as of that time of the last four runs at least fwiw and appearing to get stronger. This actually looks close to being purely tropical based on good symmetry. This run has it further east in the GOM than the 18Z GFS/12Z Euro/12Z CMC with the E US high not as strong.

Edit: this run has 20 knots+ shear on the N and W sides of it even as it organizes. I wonder if it is properly taking that into account. Maybe there is some baroclinic element that has added to its strength on this run. Gator (since you mentioned baroclinic earlier) or others, opinion?

#1043 Postby **Alyono** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 11:44 pm

MU trending stronger with the Gulf system. Actually looks like a TC this run

Hurricaneman · #1044 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 11:51 pm

Alyono wrote:MU trending stronger with the Gulf system. Actually looks like a TC this run

That could be bad news if it trends stronger in later runs for it could end up closer or over the Florida panhandle or Penninsula as a hurricane so as always we need to watch the trend as its your friend{or enemy if it hits you}

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#1045 Postby **LarryWx** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 11:53 pm

On the 0Z 9/21 MU, It comes ashore near FL Big Bend/Appalachicola late 9/30 to early 10/1 at ~1003 mb (probably TS). Lowest SLP in E GOM was ~1002 mb.

Hurricaneman · #1046 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 11:56 pm

LarryWx wrote::uarrow: It comes ashore near FL Big Bend/Appalachicola late 9/30 to early 10/1 at ~1003 mb (probably TS). Lowest SLP in E GOM was ~1002 mb.

still needs to be watched as the GFS has been trending stronger with each run today, it may go back to a weaker solution tomorrow so who knows

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#1047 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 12:27 am

I'm in agreement with you.

The 0Z CMC has:
1) what looks like a bogus 1004 mb tropical low hit near Beaufort, SC, in the PM of Thu 9/24 and then it moves NW to near ATL late 9/25/early 9/26. It brings heavy rains to the NE 1/2 of GA (all of the way up to near ATL) as well as for most of SC and much of SE NC. I find this hard to believe being that it is on its own, it is a very unreliable model, and it had nothing close to this on the prior runs.

2) a 1004 mb tropical? low hit central LA PM of 9/28. Then it moves N. On 9/27-9, it brings heavy rains for especially E LA and W MS as well as E AR into S MO.

The "King" is next.

#1048 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 1:28 am

Surprisingly and interestingly, the 0Z Euro actually has something very similar to what I was assuming was a bogus low on the 0Z CMC moving inland near Beaufort, SC, late 9/24 and bringing heavy rains into much of NE GA/SC/SE NC. The 0Z Euro low comes inland near Hilton Head early 9/25 and brings the heaviest rains of 3-6" to much of the SC coast as well as NE GA/far NW SC. This is surrounded by an area of 1.5-3" for most of SC, SE NC, and much of N GA as far NW as ATL.

Edit: The 0Z Euro actually has a second low (may be ST) coming off the Atlantic into far S SC Sun 9/27 resulting in gale force winds for upper SC into NC and rains of 4-8" from upper SC coast through much of the NC coast. So, even if not tropical, this would be a major wx maker there next weekend after an earlier low has stronger impacts further SW into SC/NE GA late this week IF this were to happen to be real. For now it is mainly entertainment.

Edit: The 0Z Euro has the Gulf low pretty similar to what the 12Z Euro had with the lowest SLP near 1002 mb and landfall SE LA early 9/29 producing 2-5" of rain for SE MS, SW AL, and the FL Panhandle.

Summary of 0Z models for Gulf low: 1002-4 mb hits anywhere from 9/28 PM to late 9/30 anywhere from central LA to FL Big Bend.

#1049 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 6:35 am

6Z MU trended even stronger. Now has a strong TS

#1050 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:05 am

Alyono wrote:6Z MU trended even stronger. Now has a strong TS

+198hr

#1051 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:38 am

I really doubt we will be seeing a strong TS in the central and northern GOM, anything past a 3-4 range forecast for the upper levels is garbage. The norm this year is that shear is very dominant, shear will not go away that fast.
Not saying that there would not be some sort of development but it it tracks towards the central and northern gulf it will be a sheared system.

#1052 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:38 am

Looks like Ft. Walton Bch. to Panama City takes the brunt of that TS. Fortunate for us, this is still a week away, lots will change!

#1053 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:41 am

NDG wrote:I really doubt we will be seeing a strong TS in the central and northern GOM, anything past a 3-4 range forecast for the upper levels is garbage. The norm this year is that shear is very dominant, shear will not go away that fast.
Not saying that there would not be some sort of development but it it tracks towards the central and northern gulf it will be a sheared system.

Uhhh, not so fast my friend.....we've seen lots of highly sheared strong Tropical Storms in the Gulf and even a hurricane or two. If the shear is out of the SW and it is moving northward fast enough it could counter the effects of the shear to a degree. It is possible in my opinion.

tropicwatch · #1054 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:49 am

If anything does happen it will probably be a combination of the tail end of the front which is rockin-n-rollin eastward and the nw Caribbean.

stormlover2013 · #1055 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:50 am

oh I could see a tropical storm no doubt!!

#1056 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:51 am

Dean4Storms wrote:
NDG wrote:I really doubt we will be seeing a strong TS in the central and northern GOM, anything past a 3-4 range forecast for the upper levels is garbage. The norm this year is that shear is very dominant, shear will not go away that fast.
Not saying that there would not be some sort of development but it it tracks towards the central and northern gulf it will be a sheared system.

Uhhh, not so fast my friend.....we've seen lots of highly sheared strong Tropical Storms in the Gulf and even a hurricane or two. If the shear is out of the SW and it is moving northward fast enough it could counter the effects of the shear to a degree. It is possible in my opinion.

Yes I see tropical storms surviving UL shear near 20 knots, but 30-50 knots like the same 06z GFS shows it will not be able to survive that. IMO. Even a bigger problem this season in our part of the Atlantic has been the mid level shear which has been dominant. With a mid & upper trough dominant over the GOM this year I am sure the possible system will have to deal with it, ML shear is what killed 94L & 96L.

blp · #1057 Postby **blp** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:55 am

Ida from 2009 could be an analog but I don't this will reach category 2. Ida 2009 formed during an El Nino year. Also, Ida formed in formed in November so some differences.

Development in the W. Carribean late in the year is not common for El Nino years.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

#1058 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 8:02 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:If anything does happen it will probably be a combination of the tail end of the front which is rockin-n-rollin eastward and the nw Caribbean.

http://tropicwatch.info/avn-animated.gif

Is not from the cold front coming down the MS river valley, which will not go that much south. The possible system will start from a monsoon trough over southern C.A. and S.A., as shown by the GFS.

tropicwatch · #1059 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 8:09 am

NDG, ordinarily I would agree that the front wouldn't make it that far south but it does not have the flattened out west to east look yet. So I think it will make it quite further south. jmo

#1060 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 8:11 am

Meanwhile last night's Euro starts development but over the BOC, moves it northward towards the central gulf coast, it shows it be more of a hybrid system:

2015 Global model runs discussion

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re:

Re:

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re:

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re: Re:

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re:

Who is online