ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
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- TheStormExpert
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I just posted in the main thread, but it is worth noting here too. I just discovered that Bob in 1991, before it was named, was only supposed to peak at 40 mph. This was supposed to peak at 35 mph.
Forecasts and models are trending up. Is history repeating itself from 1991 here? I hope not, but I would be ready for a storm like Bob just in case.
-Andrew92
I just posted in the main thread, but it is worth noting here too. I just discovered that Bob in 1991, before it was named, was only supposed to peak at 40 mph. This was supposed to peak at 35 mph.
Forecasts and models are trending up. Is history repeating itself from 1991 here? I hope not, but I would be ready for a storm like Bob just in case.
-Andrew92
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- northjaxpro
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Conditions down the road are forecast to become at least marginally favorable for further development and it is possible that Joaquin could become a hurricane within the next 5 days. Things could get quite interesting up in the New England area late this weekend if shear continues to slacken over Joaquin the next several days.
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Re: Re:
TimeZone wrote:gatorcane wrote:The 18Z HWRF. A major hurricane hit into New Jersey again. Folks this is just 99 hours from now
The HWRF is on drugs.
Note the winds, it looks like a Sandy-esque hybrid, with Cat 3 pressure but Cat 1 winds.
Of the mesoscale models:
RGEM takes it WNW over the next 48 hours, with 995mb by then.
WRF-NNM merges it with the front in 48 hours
WRF-ARW similar to RGEM but 1004mb and slower through 48 hours
NAM brings it to Cat 1 by Wed and moves generally west through it's 68 hour period.
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CMC doesn't move it northerly til after 84. From 72-84, a TC east of Joaquin that formed from the remnants of Ida causes some Fujiwara, which moves it a little south. After this, they continue Fujiwharaing around each other toward the NE US. Ida takes over and gets close to landfall while Joaquin is swung offshore.
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Re:
Alyono wrote:the CMC should be ignored. Not even remotely possible
It's certainly being creative, I'll give it that
Euro's run within the hour should be interesting, let's see if it goes the way I think (weaker/shorter lived) or if it holds to it's thinking.
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- PTrackerLA
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What does 850s look like? 564 or less to 550s thickness looks almost like a late season Noreaster/tropical hybrid.
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0Z Euro hr 30: 100 miles SSW of 12Z's 42 hour and 6 mb stronger at 997
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Re:
LarryWx wrote:0Z Euro hr 30: 100 miles SSW of 12Z's 42 hour and 6 mb stronger at 997
Looks almost identical to NAM run through 48 hours.
I think the UKMET can be tossed altogether for the year, it's joined the CMC with it's unrealistic runs.
Last edited by Hammy on Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Eueo 0Z hour 60 vs 12Z 72: 991 mb vs 1000 mb 12Z; 125 miles south and into Bahamas
0Z 72: 983 mb (vs 998 mb) stalled Bahamas 125 miles S of 12Z 84
72: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=222
Here comes the crazy stuff I assume
Hour 90: it blows up..I think this is the typical overdoing it Euro BS here
0Z 72: 983 mb (vs 998 mb) stalled Bahamas 125 miles S of 12Z 84
72: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=222
Here comes the crazy stuff I assume
Hour 90: it blows up..I think this is the typical overdoing it Euro BS here
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Looks like this run (just as the last few) of the Euro can be tossed. It's showing intensification at the same rate now that it showed for Ida over several runs and we saw how well that worked out. (and Ida was stronger and, at the time, under a slightly better upper environment.)
Can we admit yet that the model has sunk well below the GFS in terms of intensity accuracy for this year?
Can we admit yet that the model has sunk well below the GFS in terms of intensity accuracy for this year?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
LarryWx wrote:Eueo 0Z hour 60 vs 12Z 72: 991 mb vs 1000 mb 12Z; 125 miles south and into Bahamas
0Z 72: 983 mb (vs 998 mb) stalled Bahamas 125 miles S of 12Z 84
72: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=222
Here comes the crazy stuff I assume
Hour 90: it blows up..I think this is the typical overdoing it Euro BS here
The intensity is probably way off, but the track makes sense if the trough is as sharp as advertised.
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Looks like it is swinging it much further out. Will it come back to the US? If not, good news...less chance of media hysteria tomorow morning lol. Get near Bermuda first?
Bermuda hit by strong side 10/4.
Bermuda hit by strong side 10/4.
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
xironman wrote:You would think it is going to take a sharp left eventually, NJ?
I don't think it is coming back to the US on this run. Too far out. We'll see.
Edit: it is outtahere. Good news if don't want media hysteria lol
but Bahamas and Bermuda hit!
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- Hurricane Alexis
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Re:
Hammy wrote:Looks like this run (just as the last few) of the Euro can be tossed. It's showing intensification at the same rate now that it showed for Ida over several runs and we saw how well that worked out. (and Ida was stronger and, at the time, under a slightly better upper environment.)
Can we admit yet that the model has sunk well below the GFS in terms of intensity accuracy for this year?
This storm has surpassed all forecasts so far. It seems like one of those storms that always go the extra mile regardless of the environment around it.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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