ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[TheStormExpert]

00z Model Guidance FWIW.

00z Track Guidance



00z Intensity Guidance

[TimeZone]

The 18Z HWRF. A major hurricane hit into New Jersey again. Folks this is just 99 hours from now:

The HWRF is on drugs.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I just posted in the main thread, but it is worth noting here too. I just discovered that Bob in 1991, before it was named, was only supposed to peak at 40 mph. This was supposed to peak at 35 mph.

Forecasts and models are trending up. Is history repeating itself from 1991 here? I hope not, but I would be ready for a storm like Bob just in case.

-Andrew92

[northjaxpro]

Conditions down the road are forecast to become at least marginally favorable for further development and it is possible that Joaquin could become a hurricane within the next 5 days. Things could get quite interesting up in the New England area late this weekend if shear continues to slacken over Joaquin the next several days.

[Alyono]

UKMET had a massive west shift. NC is definitely in play. Still showing an intense TC

[Hammy]

The 18Z HWRF. A major hurricane hit into New Jersey again. Folks this is just 99 hours from now

The HWRF is on drugs.

Note the winds, it looks like a Sandy-esque hybrid, with Cat 3 pressure but Cat 1 winds.

Of the mesoscale models:
RGEM takes it WNW over the next 48 hours, with 995mb by then.
WRF-NNM merges it with the front in 48 hours
WRF-ARW similar to RGEM but 1004mb and slower through 48 hours
NAM brings it to Cat 1 by Wed and moves generally west through it's 68 hour period.

[LarryWx]

CMC doesn't move it northerly til after 84. From 72-84, a TC east of Joaquin that formed from the remnants of Ida causes some Fujiwara, which moves it a little south. After this, they continue Fujiwharaing around each other toward the NE US. Ida takes over and gets close to landfall while Joaquin is swung offshore.

[Alyono]

the CMC should be ignored. Not even remotely possible

[Hammy]

the CMC should be ignored. Not even remotely possible

It's certainly being creative, I'll give it that

Euro's run within the hour should be interesting, let's see if it goes the way I think (weaker/shorter lived) or if it holds to it's thinking.

[PTrackerLA]

144hr UKMET, ouch .

[Ntxw]

144hr UKMET, ouch .

http://i.imgur.com/RxJk1It.jpg

What does 850s look like? 564 or less to 550s thickness looks almost like a late season Noreaster/tropical hybrid.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro hr 30: 100 miles SSW of 12Z's 42 hour and 6 mb stronger at 997

[Hammy]

0Z Euro hr 30: 100 miles SSW of 12Z's 42 hour and 6 mb stronger at 997

Looks almost identical to NAM run through 48 hours.

I think the UKMET can be tossed altogether for the year, it's joined the CMC with it's unrealistic runs.

[LarryWx]

Eueo 0Z hour 60 vs 12Z 72: 991 mb vs 1000 mb 12Z; 125 miles south and into Bahamas

0Z 72: 983 mb (vs 998 mb) stalled Bahamas 125 miles S of 12Z 84

72: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=222


Here comes the crazy stuff I assume

Hour 90: it blows up..I think this is the typical overdoing it Euro BS here

[Hammy]

Looks like this run (just as the last few) of the Euro can be tossed. It's showing intensification at the same rate now that it showed for Ida over several runs and we saw how well that worked out. (and Ida was stronger and, at the time, under a slightly better upper environment.)

Can we admit yet that the model has sunk well below the GFS in terms of intensity accuracy for this year?

[xironman]

Eueo 0Z hour 60 vs 12Z 72: 991 mb vs 1000 mb 12Z; 125 miles south and into Bahamas

0Z 72: 983 mb (vs 998 mb) stalled Bahamas 125 miles S of 12Z 84

72: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=222


Here comes the crazy stuff I assume

Hour 90: it blows up..I think this is the typical overdoing it Euro BS here

The intensity is probably way off, but the track makes sense if the trough is as sharp as advertised.

[LarryWx]

Looks like it is swinging it much further out. Will it come back to the US? If not, good news...less chance of media hysteria tomorow morning lol. Get near Bermuda first?

Bermuda hit by strong side 10/4.

[xironman]

You would think it is going to take a sharp left eventually, NJ?

[LarryWx]

You would think it is going to take a sharp left eventually, NJ?

I don't think it is coming back to the US on this run. Too far out. We'll see.

Edit: it is outtahere. Good news if don't want media hysteria lol

but Bahamas and Bermuda hit!

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looks like this run (just as the last few) of the Euro can be tossed. It's showing intensification at the same rate now that it showed for Ida over several runs and we saw how well that worked out. (and Ida was stronger and, at the time, under a slightly better upper environment.)

Can we admit yet that the model has sunk well below the GFS in terms of intensity accuracy for this year?

This storm has surpassed all forecasts so far. It seems like one of those storms that always go the extra mile regardless of the environment around it.