ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Blizzard96x]

6z GFS about 6 hours slower than 00z, makes landfall about 75 miles further south into Kill Devil Hills NC instead of Virginia Beach VA.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS landfall @ 105 hours seems to be between North Carolina and Virginia

[Kingarabian]

Seems like the trough has a bit more tug to it this time around.

[NDG]

So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.

[Weatherwatcher98]

So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.

Lets hope it is right this time as it spares the United States

[Kingarabian]

So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.

Bit too soon to declare a winner IMO. Euro did shift a bit west.

[xironman]

I don't have spaghetti charts of the Euro ensemble, but here is the mean. There as to be lot of members not agreeing with the op

[NDG]

So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.

Bit too soon to declare a winner IMO. Euro did shift a bit west.

Well so far it has done better the GFS which just a day or two ago it was not showing it strengthen it like has been for the last 12 hrs or so.

BTW, I don't see that it has shifted that much west, if at all, during the last couple of runs.

[Kingarabian]

[tolakram]

The euro ensemble mean is still off the coast of Virginia, and it was the euro that failed with Erika, insisting it was going up near the Bahamas while the GFS sniffed out death over Hispaniola. If it wasn't for these two things I would agree the Euro is the one to believe.

[ronjon]

So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.

ECM ensembles favor a NC hit - its the only model out on its own. is an outlier at this point.

[Kingarabian]

Euro ensembles actually shifted a bit East as well.

[Weatherwatcher98]

So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.

ECM ensembles favor a NC hit - its the only model out on its own. is an outlier at this point.

Interesting to Note much weaker than others at 1003 mb

[Kingarabian]

The main short term differences I see between the GFS and Euro is that the GFS does not drop the storm south into the Bahamas as much as the Euro does. Will the location of Joaquin dictate its track?

[ronjon]

So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.

ECM ensembles favor a NC hit - its the only model out on its own. is an outlier at this point.

Interesting to Note much weaker than others at 1003 mb

Weatherwatcher98, typically the mean of 20 or so individual ensemble runs is weaker then a single operation model run. It's because you're basically averaging many runs so I wouldn't read too much into it.

[ronjon]

I'm seeing the biggest difference between the operational runs of the GFS and ECM is the orientation of the 500 mb cutoff low over the SE. GFS has more of a negative tilt from 72-96 hours while ECM does not. I think this is the big difference influencing track.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Thanks ronjon

[drezee]

Interesting, center is SE of NHC 5am position...point Euro

[Alyono]

EC forms a BS low from Joaquim. That's the issue

[Weatherwatcher98]

I'm seeing the biggest difference between the operational runs of the GFS and ECM is the orientation of the 500 mb cutoff low over the SE. GFS has more of a negative tilt from 72-96 hours while ECM does not. I think this is the big difference influencing track.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/eastpac/winds/wg9dlm5-1.GIF According to the pattern downstream That may change??