ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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Blizzard96x
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#401 Postby Blizzard96x » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:07 am

6z GFS about 6 hours slower than 00z, makes landfall about 75 miles further south into Kill Devil Hills NC instead of Virginia Beach VA.
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#402 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:07 am

06z GFS landfall @ 105 hours seems to be between North Carolina and Virginia

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#403 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:08 am

Seems like the trough has a bit more tug to it this time around.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#404 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:27 am

So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#405 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:29 am

NDG wrote:So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.
Lets hope it is right this time as it spares the United States
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#406 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:39 am

NDG wrote:So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.


Bit too soon to declare a winner IMO. Euro did shift a bit west.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#407 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:42 am

I don't have spaghetti charts of the Euro ensemble, but here is the mean. There as to be lot of members not agreeing with the op

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#408 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:44 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.


Bit too soon to declare a winner IMO. Euro did shift a bit west.


Well so far it has done better the GFS which just a day or two ago it was not showing it strengthen it like has been for the last 12 hrs or so.

BTW, I don't see that it has shifted that much west, if at all, during the last couple of runs.
Last edited by NDG on Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#409 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:44 am

:uarrow:
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#410 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:45 am

The euro ensemble mean is still off the coast of Virginia, and it was the euro that failed with Erika, insisting it was going up near the Bahamas while the GFS sniffed out death over Hispaniola. If it wasn't for these two things I would agree the Euro is the one to believe.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#411 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:45 am

NDG wrote:So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.


ECM ensembles favor a NC hit - its the only model out on its own. is an outlier at this point.
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#412 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:49 am

Euro ensembles actually shifted a bit East as well.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#413 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:50 am

ronjon wrote:
NDG wrote:So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.


ECM ensembles favor a NC hit - its the only model out on its own. is an outlier at this point.
Interesting to Note much weaker than others at 1003 mb
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#414 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:52 am

The main short term differences I see between the GFS and Euro is that the GFS does not drop the storm south into the Bahamas as much as the Euro does. Will the location of Joaquin dictate its track?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#415 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:55 am

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
ronjon wrote:
NDG wrote:So has the Euro been upgraded lately, like in past week or so?
It was the only model that was correct with 99L and so far has done really good with Joaquin.
One thing about the Euro is that when it locks in within the 4-5 day range syptonic set up it is usually more right than wrong.


ECM ensembles favor a NC hit - its the only model out on its own. is an outlier at this point.
Interesting to Note much weaker than others at 1003 mb


Weatherwatcher98, typically the mean of 20 or so individual ensemble runs is weaker then a single operation model run. It's because you're basically averaging many runs so I wouldn't read too much into it.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#416 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:01 am

I'm seeing the biggest difference between the operational runs of the GFS and ECM is the orientation of the 500 mb cutoff low over the SE. GFS has more of a negative tilt from 72-96 hours while ECM does not. I think this is the big difference influencing track.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#417 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:03 am

Thanks ronjon :oops: :lol:
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#418 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:06 am

Interesting, center is SE of NHC 5am position...point Euro
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#419 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:11 am

EC forms a BS low from Joaquim. That's the issue
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#420 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:11 am

ronjon wrote:I'm seeing the biggest difference between the operational runs of the GFS and ECM is the orientation of the 500 mb cutoff low over the SE. GFS has more of a negative tilt from 72-96 hours while ECM does not. I think this is the big difference influencing track.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/eastpac/winds/wg9dlm5-1.GIF According to the pattern downstream That may change??
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