ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
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not that its coming across florida but the track at least this part very similar to betsy ...
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
Full recurve by 72.


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12Z Euro at 72 is about 50-100 miles SW of its 0Z Euro 84 hour position. Also, upper level low over SE and upper level high to the NW are slightly further west. I expect this will mean an even further west track than the 0Z Euro but probably still missing the US. This will likely mean further west of Bermuda than the 0Z Euro had.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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THe big difference between the euro and the rest is the euro swings the cutt off low ese almost completely off shore while the other models keep pretty much in place.. weird..
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
At 78H 953MB and east of where it is now, Euro is sending this way out to sea.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
So is this run more or less believable than the previous?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
Wow what a conundrum for the forecasters now..can see 90% of the METs banging their heads on the table now. Let's see what the ensemble runs are going to do now. I mean - have we ever had this large of a descrepancy between the global models just 2-3 days from now. Unbelievable - thought our science and tools were better than that!
Last edited by ronjon on Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
This is Most Likely why the NHC did not Pull the switch Yet.HurrMark wrote:This would be a coup for the ages if this is correct.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
So, EURO has a southwestward diving and intensifying storm through 40 hours. Meanwhile, seems to me that Joaquin has been moving faster than forecasted points. Either we should see a fairly abrupt slow down soon, or someone needs to grab a pencil and just for fun plot out present (or general WSW) motion and speed times 40 hours. Seems to me that the later would push the hurricane a good deal further west than ever anticipated.
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Like I said I would love to be a fly on the wall there today!!!PTrackerLA wrote:This is just crazy. I'm glad I don't work for the NHC!
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
ronjon wrote:Wow what a conundrum for the forecasters now..can see 90% of the METs banging their heads on the table now.
And the remaining 10% picked the wrong week to quit smoking.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
King Euro: I SAID out to sea...did I stutter?
GFS: We shall see..KE...we shall see
Farther West but still this is a wild scenario...loving the drama...
GFS: We shall see..KE...we shall see
Farther West but still this is a wild scenario...loving the drama...
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
I agree. Very Interestingdrezee wrote:King Euro: I SAID out to sea...did I stutter?
GFS: We shall see..KE...we shall see
Farther West but still this is a wild scenario...loving the drama...
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