ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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Aric Dunn
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#541 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:09 pm

not that its coming across florida but the track at least this part very similar to betsy ...
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#542 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:09 pm

pic?
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#543 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:10 pm

EURO isn't done running yet, but it looks like its going to do the same fujiwara dance with ex IDA. Looks like this is going to be EAST again.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#544 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:10 pm

Full recurve by 72.

Image
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#545 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:10 pm

12Z Euro at 72 is about 50-100 miles SW of its 0Z Euro 84 hour position. Also, upper level low over SE and upper level high to the NW are slightly further west. I expect this will mean an even further west track than the 0Z Euro but probably still missing the US. This will likely mean further west of Bermuda than the 0Z Euro had.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#546 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:10 pm

Whaaa? Is this going to turn west or is it already recurving?
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#547 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:12 pm

THe big difference between the euro and the rest is the euro swings the cutt off low ese almost completely off shore while the other models keep pretty much in place.. weird..
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#548 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:12 pm

At 78H 953MB and east of where it is now, Euro is sending this way out to sea.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#549 Postby seahawkjd » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:14 pm

So is this run more or less believable than the previous?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#550 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:14 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#551 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:15 pm

Wow what a conundrum for the forecasters now..can see 90% of the METs banging their heads on the table now. Let's see what the ensemble runs are going to do now. I mean - have we ever had this large of a descrepancy between the global models just 2-3 days from now. Unbelievable - thought our science and tools were better than that!
Last edited by ronjon on Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#552 Postby HurrMark » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:15 pm

This would be a coup for the ages if this is correct.
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#553 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:16 pm

This is just crazy. I'm glad I don't work for the NHC!
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#554 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:16 pm

HurrMark wrote:This would be a coup for the ages if this is correct.
This is Most Likely why the NHC did not Pull the switch Yet.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#555 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:16 pm

So, EURO has a southwestward diving and intensifying storm through 40 hours. Meanwhile, seems to me that Joaquin has been moving faster than forecasted points. Either we should see a fairly abrupt slow down soon, or someone needs to grab a pencil and just for fun plot out present (or general WSW) motion and speed times 40 hours. Seems to me that the later would push the hurricane a good deal further west than ever anticipated.
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Re:

#556 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:17 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:This is just crazy. I'm glad I don't work for the NHC!
Like I said I would love to be a fly on the wall there today!!!
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#557 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:17 pm

ronjon wrote:Wow what a conundrum for the forecasters now..can see 90% of the METs banging their heads on the table now.


And the remaining 10% picked the wrong week to quit smoking.
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#558 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:17 pm

EX IDA is really throwing the wrench in some good model agreement. EURO is really keying in on ex IDA and that is really pushing this out to sea. If the EURO ENS are west again today, I still say the OP is on limited crack..lol
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#559 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:18 pm

King Euro: I SAID out to sea...did I stutter?

GFS: We shall see..KE...we shall see

Farther West but still this is a wild scenario...loving the drama...
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#560 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:19 pm

drezee wrote:King Euro: I SAID out to sea...did I stutter?

GFS: We shall see..KE...we shall see

Farther West but still this is a wild scenario...loving the drama...
I agree. Very Interesting
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