ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[northjaxpro]

Darn good thing that nobody has any faith in the CLIPper model. That scenario it shows would really not play out well for Florida if he just did a slow meander further southwest over the next 3 days and the front just fizzled away at its southern periphery as Joaquin pumped up the ridge to his northeast which allows him to miss the weakness connection to the north. Looks like the CLIP also doesn't let a full cutoff low form either, or immediately opens it back up. In any case, the time spent slowly drifting around south appears to show a missed connection with any supposed northern weakness through 72 hours. After that, who knows what could happen. Steering currents would remain weak I would suspect, or maybe 90L could eventual cause a weakness to the northeast to allow J to escape the trapping ridge. Then again, maybe with the front passage or disintegration, the ridge could ooze back west and cause J to continue a WSW drift until Hispanola ripped him up.
Of course, that meandering thought pattern was all pure conjecture based on the CLIP's read this morning....not that it will happen. Don't listen to me, follow NHC guidance, blah blah blah.

This is an excellent post and analysis Treasure IslandFLgal. Gatorcane, myself and a few others have mentioned this possible scenario of Joaquin pumping the ridge steering him currently. I have been holding back my thoughts on this possible scenario in that it is not very likely to happen. But? Given how extremely intense Joaquin is, it is quite possible that the outflow from the upper levels of the cyclone can help to expand the ridge steering it. Subsident air outside of the periphery of the intense cyclone ican indeed help in the increase of pressure rises to help expand a ridge.

Now thatt Joaquin has developed into such an intense cyclone, the dynamics with such a system enhances the chances of this process much better than a tropical cyclone which is on a much smaller scale.

I have seen this happen with intense hurricanes creating this phenomenon in the past. This is a very plasible scenario, a very big wild card for sure. Today we will get more answers hopefully one way or the other to see if this possibility with Joaquin may happen. Very interesting theory for sure.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Model Guidance.

12z Track Guidance



12z Intensity Guidance

[Texashawk]

Well, that clears things right up!

12z Model Guidance.

12z Track Guidance



12z Intensity Guidance

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS Ensembles.

[windnrain]

Most of those models landfall somewhere

[PTrackerLA]

FWIW, the 12z NAM still wants to turn Joaquin into NC at 84 hours:

[stormlover2013]

all the so call models are to the right and the so called sucky models to the left, lets see what the euro and gfs show coming up

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I like this model combined model site. Click on Joaquin in the upper right corner and all the models will plot. It also helps to turn on Model Name too. You can select and deselect the ones you want to plot, as well as zoom in or out. Hovering over a plot gives more related detail too.
http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

[Ken Lucas]

FWIW, the 12z NAM still wants to turn Joaquin into NC at 84 hours:

Was the 12z NAM data available at the time of the recent NHC 11:00 am forecast?

[Ken Lucas]

I like this model combined model site. Click on Joaquin in the upper right corner and all the models will plot. It also helps to turn on Model Name too. You can select and deselect the ones you want to plot, as well as zoom in or out. Hovering over a plot gives more related detail too.
http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

I like that, thanks for the link.

[Steve]

FWIW, the 12z NAM still wants to turn Joaquin into NC at 84 hours:

Was the 12z NAM data available at the time of the recent NHC 11:00 am forecast?

It most likely wouldn't matter. They rarely note it. The High-Res at NCEP takes it off ENE; the low res gets caught up in the circulation on the East Coast.

[ROCK]

Eh when the EURO is consistent run after run hard to even consider the other models. Even the GFS ensembles are leaning more right. Just a matter of time IMO....

[windnrain]

GFS yet?

[sicktght311]

If theres one thing thats consistently ignored, or forgotten on this board, is that model runs 2-3 days out dont always translate to truth. Time and time again between winter noreasters, hurricanes, and even Sandy, tracks can quickly change with dynamic and unpredictable weather patterns. Heck i'm pretty sure it wasnt until 2 days out with sandy that the model tracks brought it to where it actually ended up. At the end of the day, the models are only as good as the people who allow them to be used as guidelines and nothing more. Personally, even with the Euro consistently being the same, i would still take note that the GFS, and other models, arent fully buying it, even if they are trending towards the euro. This is an extremely complex pattern, with some variables that havent even gotten there yet, so one small change in those variables and the track can be a whole lot different.

Everyone up and down the east coast from NC to Maine, be vigilant. 24 hours ago the storm was possibly going into NC/SC, now its possibly out to sea, tomorrow it could be NJ.

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z running

[windnrain]

What does GFS initialize at

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Full res, init

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Slightly west of 6Z so far.