TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Darn good thing that nobody has any faith in the CLIPper model. That scenario it shows would really not play out well for Florida if he just did a slow meander further southwest over the next 3 days and the front just fizzled away at its southern periphery as Joaquin pumped up the ridge to his northeast which allows him to miss the weakness connection to the north. Looks like the CLIP also doesn't let a full cutoff low form either, or immediately opens it back up. In any case, the time spent slowly drifting around south appears to show a missed connection with any supposed northern weakness through 72 hours. After that, who knows what could happen. Steering currents would remain weak I would suspect, or maybe 90L could eventual cause a weakness to the northeast to allow J to escape the trapping ridge. Then again, maybe with the front passage or disintegration, the ridge could ooze back west and cause J to continue a WSW drift until Hispanola ripped him up.
Of course, that meandering thought pattern was all pure conjecture based on the CLIP's read this morning....not that it will happen. Don't listen to me, follow NHC guidance, blah blah blah.
This is an excellent post and analysis Treasure IslandFLgal. Gatorcane, myself and a few others have mentioned this possible scenario of Joaquin pumping the ridge steering him currently. I have been holding back my thoughts on this possible scenario in that it is not very likely to happen. But? Given how extremely intense Joaquin is, it is quite possible that the outflow from the upper levels of the cyclone can help to expand the ridge steering it. Subsident air outside of the periphery of the intense cyclone ican indeed help in the increase of pressure rises to help expand a ridge.
Now thatt Joaquin has developed into such an intense cyclone, the dynamics with such a system enhances the chances of this process much better than a tropical cyclone which is on a much smaller scale.
I have seen this happen with intense hurricanes creating this phenomenon in the past. This is a very plasible scenario, a very big wild card for sure. Today we will get more answers hopefully one way or the other to see if this possibility with Joaquin may happen. Very interesting theory for sure.