ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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hohnywx
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#1121 Postby hohnywx » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:15 pm

SREFs continuing to show a landfall near NC
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Weatherwatcher98
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Re:

#1122 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:29 pm

hohnywx wrote:SREFs continuing to show a landfall near NC
Go with the dependable Models.
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Re: Re:

#1123 Postby Weatherlover12 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:41 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:up and out on the latest Euro. No threat to the U.S. based on that model. It has it FAR to the east of the United States.

Maybe a threat to Bermuda. But yeah once again the U.S. is... "Saved By The Trough!"


Please don't sound the all clear. It doesn't help us or the residents. WAIT& SEE.. Thank you!
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#1124 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:48 pm

Euro isnt exactly verifying right now, nor is GFS
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1125 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:50 pm

5pm Advisory will hopefully Calm the Fears of those that are concerned :D and also silence the people I disagree with. :roll:
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#1126 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:19 pm

NAM 12h
Image
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1127 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:20 pm

lol nam is worse then the CMC
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#1128 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:20 pm

NAM 24h

Image
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#1129 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:23 pm

Image

Nam 36h
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Re:

#1130 Postby Raebie » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:25 pm

windnrain wrote:Image

Nam 36h


Looks like I'm going to get wet. Very wet.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1131 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:26 pm

The Nam??? :lol:
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1132 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:27 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:lol nam is worse then the CMC
I know :lol:
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Re: Re:

#1133 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:28 pm

Raebie wrote:
windnrain wrote:Image

Nam 36h


Looks like I'm going to get wet. Very wet.
But your correct your going to have a lot of Rain but not from the Hurricane.
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#1134 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:41 pm

Thru 5 days most of the 12zECMWF Ensemble members have Joaquin well east of the US Coast. 1 ECMWF Ensemble Member has Joaquin moving to NE Florida, 1.9% chance of happening :lol:
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#1135 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:42 pm

Image
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Steve
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#1136 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:47 pm

12z GFS looks worse for South Carolina than any of the prior runs rainfall wise. It is probably a combination of the front and possibly either some phased moisture from the outflow or generally enhanced precipitation. But the entire Central and Northern Coasts of SC are in the 15-20 inches plus yellow. That's within 4 days. That's more rain than almost any hurricane would lay down. I doubt we see anything quite that high, but you never know. If I was in a flood prone area or near a creek/river/stream that overflows its banks in bad weather, I'd be uneasy.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1137 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:11 pm

Lest we forget, the NAM I believe was the only model other than the Euro to call for the northeast turn.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1138 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:41 pm

GFS

Image

Northwest at 12h
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1139 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:43 pm

Image
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#1140 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:48 pm

very similar to 12Z at 54 hours
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