EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#361 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:12 pm

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Recon approaching

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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#362 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:14 pm

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4m4 minutes ago

Obviously #Patricia is no #Haiyan but there is a family resemblance @iCyclone . Recon on the way...

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Re: Re:

#363 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:14 pm

psyclone wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:I am beginning to wonder if they can complete this mission with such an intense tropical cyclone. Hopeful the Recon crew can navigate through that turbulence upon their decension into this monster. That turbulence will be unimaginable.


Does turbulence always increase with strength? I'm not sure it's that linear but I don't know. At any rate I'd be surprised if recon couldn't complete their mission.

No, there are Cat 5 flights that are smooth and TS flights that are bumpy as heck. The problem here is I was reading (at least earlier) that there was a lot of lightning in the eye wall. Lightning is a sign of likely tremendous updrafts and downdrafts, which can lead to very severe turbulence. It is also a sign that graupel may be present, which also poses a threat to the safety of the aircraft. Remember, the Air Force flies WC-130s, which are just regular C-130s, outfitted with weather equipment. There is no extra strengthening done to the aircraft, and thus it is only capable of surviving what a regular C-130 can survive.

With that said, they are very tough birds, and it would take a lot to shake one apart or take it out of the sky...but it isn't impossible.
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#364 Postby Cunxi Huang » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:14 pm

omg this is so incredible. a well-defined CDG ring appeears on a hurricane in the EPAC.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#365 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:16 pm

CI# finally catching up

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 920.9mb/143.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.3 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.9C

Scene Type : EYE
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#366 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:19 pm

My prediction is 155 knots and pressure around 910.
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Re: Re:

#367 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:19 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
psyclone wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:I am beginning to wonder if they can complete this mission with such an intense tropical cyclone. Hopeful the Recon crew can navigate through that turbulence upon their decension into this monster. That turbulence will be unimaginable.


Does turbulence always increase with strength? I'm not sure it's that linear but I don't know. At any rate I'd be surprised if recon couldn't complete their mission.

No, there are Cat 5 flights that are smooth and TS flights that are bumpy as heck. The problem here is I was reading (at least earlier) that there was a lot of lightning in the eye wall. Lightning is a sign of likely tremendous updrafts and downdrafts, which can lead to very severe turbulence. It is also a sign that graupel may be present, which also poses a threat to the safety of the aircraft. Remember, the Air Force flies WC-130s, which are just regular C-130s, outfitted with weather equipment. There is no extra strengthening done to the aircraft, and thus it is only capable of surviving what a regular C-130 can survive.

With that said, they are very tough birds, and it would take a lot to shake one apart or take it out of the sky...but it isn't impossible.


Thanks for your post. This is exactly the clarity I was looking for. I recall pilots ( I believe on a special on TWC) mentioning that they have flown very bumpy tropical storms and comparatively smooth hurricanes so this makes sense. Nevertheless I'll never a tenth the stones of the recon folks...holy smokes..
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#368 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:23 pm

This could have the highest wind in a Hurricane/Typhoon of the year

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#369 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:23 pm

This is a prime example tonight of why I have great admiration for the pilots and the crew performing their jobs flying into these cyclones, especially one as super intense as Patricia. Extremely dangerous tonight for them. I have tremendous affection and appreciation for what they do in order to help in analyzing and collecting data from these storms.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#370 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:25 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:This could have the highest wind in a Hurricane/Typhoon of the year

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Super Typhoon Soudelor would be the one to beat out. It was analyzed with a 155 kt intensity back in August, but with no recon confirmation.
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#371 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:26 pm

For those wanting more information on the aircraft and equipment onboard, you can look here:
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/plane.html
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Re: Re:

#372 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:27 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:This could have the highest wind in a Hurricane/Typhoon of the year

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Super Typhoon Soudelor would be the one to beat out. It was analyzed with a 155 kt intensity back in August, but with no recon confirmation.


Waiting for recon to find out
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#373 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:28 pm

I hope those in that Recon plane have everything strapped down tight and are ready. It's going to be an extremely rough ride...perhaps one of the most turbulent they have ever experienced.
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Re:

#374 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I hope those in that Recon plane have everything strapped down tight and are ready. It's going to be an extremely rough ride...perhaps one of the most turbulent they have ever experienced.


Say a prayer for those brave men and women who do the recon flights as this is probably one of their most dangerous missions

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Re: Re:

#375 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:31 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I hope those in that Recon plane have everything strapped down tight and are ready. It's going to be an extremely rough ride...perhaps one of the most turbulent they have ever experienced.


Say a prayer for those brave men and women who do the recon flights as this is probably one of their most dangerous missions

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Amen!!
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#376 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:31 pm

Only thing I can say before recon penetrates the eyewall is that the CDO is still cooling and eye becoming even warmer
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#377 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:33 pm

My prediction for recon is 165 knots with a pressure of 900 mb.

This will indeed be a historic recon intercept, the most anticipated one in a very very long time. Nothing this year comes close to the next few hours.
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#378 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:33 pm

I'd say this is very close to, if not, T8.0.

This has to be the most impressive storm ever in the Western Hemisphere.
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Re:

#379 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:33 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Only thing I can say before recon penetrates the eyewall is that the CDO is still cooling and eye becoming even warmer


As 1900hurricane alluded earlier, they are hitting her at her best. Invaluable data, not just for this system but how we compare other systems (particularly WPAC) as if they had recon. We don't see systems in the whem with this kind of presentation often, if ever.
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#380 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:34 pm

Low winds and high pressures outside the core would suggest a very tight gradient, which means very high winds. Much like Haiyan.
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