EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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bahamaswx
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#581 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:54 am

Got an 885.2mb extrap. Waiting for VDM.
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#582 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:54 am

885mb and 175kt sfmr.
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#583 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:55 am

192 kt FL.........................
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#584 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:55 am

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 192 kts (220.9 mph)
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#585 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:55 am

This is a 180kt hurricane, period.
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#586 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:55 am

RL3AO wrote:192 kt FL.........................


Just tops Megi.
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#587 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:56 am

Based on that flight level, maybe 185kts?
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#588 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:56 am

Sigh. Wish we had one more plane on the way.
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#589 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:57 am

1900hurricane wrote:
RL3AO wrote:192 kt FL.........................


Just tops Megi.


And that's a west-east pass. Didn't really get the NE quad.
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#590 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:57 am

This is at least 175 knots no questions asked.
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#591 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:57 am

885 mb reading on that last pass.
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#592 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:58 am

This is stronger than Wilma. Pressure might not get there but wind wise...unreal.
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#593 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:59 am

Kingarabian wrote:Sigh. Wish we had one more plane on the way.


It would be cool to have another for the books, but at this point I think most of us have seen enough to be easily convinced the crazy numbers being thrown at us. It could even be a little stronger.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#594 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:59 am

Maybe in post-analysis the pressure will be at or lower than Wilmas.
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#595 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:00 am

Wow, it looks as if Patricia will just barely miss either tying or surpassing Wilma's mark.

However, Patricia well exceeded my expectations and everyone's for that matter making incredible history tonight, becoming the second strongest tropical cyclone ever in the Western Hemisphere. I am utterly floored and speechless folks!!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#596 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:01 am

I'm rusty on my dropsondes but this is 885mb/41kt right? 00885 13541
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#597 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:02 am

hurricaneCW wrote:Maybe in post-analysis the pressure will be at or lower than Wilmas.


Before tonight, I was eagerly anticipating Joaquin's post analysis. Now, I can not wait to see the post analysis of Patricia. That will be extremely interesting!!
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#598 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:02 am

At least 882mb or lower...oh well
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#599 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:03 am

10kts is 1-2mb on average. So if 40kts it means there needs to be at least a 4mb reduction.
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#600 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:03 am

RL3AO wrote:This is stronger than Wilma. Pressure might not get there but wind wise...unreal.


Agreed. Winds gusted probably as high as 215 mph at some point during peak intensity of Patricia.
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