EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#581 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:54 am

Got an 885.2mb extrap. Waiting for VDM.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#582 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:54 am

885mb and 175kt sfmr.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#583 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:55 am

192 kt FL.........................
0 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#584 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:55 am

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 192 kts (220.9 mph)
0 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#585 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:55 am

This is a 180kt hurricane, period.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:
Contact 1900hurricane

Re:

#586 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:55 am

RL3AO wrote:192 kt FL.........................


Just tops Megi.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#587 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:56 am

Based on that flight level, maybe 185kts?
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#588 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:56 am

Sigh. Wish we had one more plane on the way.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

Re: Re:

#589 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:57 am

1900hurricane wrote:
RL3AO wrote:192 kt FL.........................


Just tops Megi.


And that's a west-east pass. Didn't really get the NE quad.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

#590 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:57 am

This is at least 175 knots no questions asked.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#591 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:57 am

885 mb reading on that last pass.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#592 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:58 am

This is stronger than Wilma. Pressure might not get there but wind wise...unreal.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re:

#593 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:59 am

Kingarabian wrote:Sigh. Wish we had one more plane on the way.


It would be cool to have another for the books, but at this point I think most of us have seen enough to be easily convinced the crazy numbers being thrown at us. It could even be a little stronger.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
 Help Support Storm2K
Top
hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#594 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:59 am

Maybe in post-analysis the pressure will be at or lower than Wilmas.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#595 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:00 am

Wow, it looks as if Patricia will just barely miss either tying or surpassing Wilma's mark.

However, Patricia well exceeded my expectations and everyone's for that matter making incredible history tonight, becoming the second strongest tropical cyclone ever in the Western Hemisphere. I am utterly floored and speechless folks!!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#596 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:01 am

I'm rusty on my dropsondes but this is 885mb/41kt right? 00885 13541
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#597 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:02 am

hurricaneCW wrote:Maybe in post-analysis the pressure will be at or lower than Wilmas.


Before tonight, I was eagerly anticipating Joaquin's post analysis. Now, I can not wait to see the post analysis of Patricia. That will be extremely interesting!!
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

#598 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:02 am

At least 882mb or lower...oh well
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#599 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:03 am

10kts is 1-2mb on average. So if 40kts it means there needs to be at least a 4mb reduction.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re:

#600 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:03 am

RL3AO wrote:This is stronger than Wilma. Pressure might not get there but wind wise...unreal.


Agreed. Winds gusted probably as high as 215 mph at some point during peak intensity of Patricia.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests