EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[WeatherGuesser]

Even in the US, such a storm would be difficult to prepare for. Think of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which was a Cat 1 just 24 hours before landfall (I believe) and bombed out approaching the Keys. Even today, there would be no way everyone would evacuate from that.

Somebody earlier mentioned 7 million people. Where would they go? Mexico is not known for having a good road system. How would they clear 7 million people in just a couple of days?

[1900hurricane]

JSL IR might be showing some weakening, but not a lot.

Cloud tops are certainly warming to some degree, but I'm unsure if weakening is taking place because of it. There is some disagreement in the meteorological community about the effects of daytime CDO warming in the most intense storms. For the record, Tip's CDO warmed noticeably before the 870 mb dropsonde pass around 03Z, or about high noon over that portion of the WPac.

[psyclone]

since the radius of max winds is very small there is hope that wrath will be confined to a low population area...I think that's our best hope at this point. One other thing that I find amazing is the forecast of a cat 5 landfall to dissipation in 36 hours. as fast as the ramp up was the ramp down is destined to be even quicker. remarkable to contemplate. As I said last night...this is a "run for your life" storm.

[talkon]

Looking at the 1430z frame, cloud tops are definitely warming, but just by a bit.

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud top warming may be diurnal.

[DukeDevil91]

Haiyan at peak intensity on top, Patricia on the bottom.

[1900hurricane]

No eyewall replacement.

[talkon]

Haiyan at peak intensity on top, Patricia on the bottom.

Are they at the same scale?

[DukeDevil91]

Warming of the cloud tops seemed to happen immediately after the sun came up. I don't see much weakening. I also noticed a significant wobble east.

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane on route towards Patricia.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say Patricia has peaked and may be starting to gradually weaken.

I'd be surprised if she is still this strong later today, hopefully she's not for Mexico's sake.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Haiyan at peak intensity on top, Patricia on the bottom.

The above image is Utor 2013 not Haiyan.

[supercane4867]

Not even a slight hint of weakening exists on microwave

[DukeDevil91]

Haiyan at peak intensity on top, Patricia on the bottom.

The above image is Utor 2013 not Haiyan.

My apologies

[xtyphooncyclonex]

[hurricaneCW]

If no EWRC is taking place then don't expect much weakening prior to landfall. She'll also begin to accelerate shortly if not already and a more easterly movement could indicate landfall is a mere 8-9 hrs away.

[mrbagyo]

Haiyan at peak intensity on top, Patricia on the bottom.

The above image is Utor 2013 not Haiyan.

My apologies

That's STY UTOR @ 240 kph

[tolakram]

Saved MIMIC (too big to embed)

http://imageshack.com/a/img910/1072/z6vOvh.gif

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'd say Patricia has peaked and may be starting to gradually weaken.

I'd be surprised if she is still this strong later today, hopefully she's not for Mexico's sake.

Sadly it ain't weakening yet, no EWRC is soon to occur and if ever it would it would not weaken Patricia. Warming cloudtops are because of the presence of sunlight over the storm region

[Ntxw]

More invaluable data from next recon pass