EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: Re:

#841 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:56 am

CrazyC83 wrote: Even in the US, such a storm would be difficult to prepare for. Think of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which was a Cat 1 just 24 hours before landfall (I believe) and bombed out approaching the Keys. Even today, there would be no way everyone would evacuate from that.


Somebody earlier mentioned 7 million people. Where would they go? Mexico is not known for having a good road system. How would they clear 7 million people in just a couple of days?
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#842 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:58 am

tolakram wrote:JSL IR might be showing some weakening, but not a lot.

Image


Cloud tops are certainly warming to some degree, but I'm unsure if weakening is taking place because of it. There is some disagreement in the meteorological community about the effects of daytime CDO warming in the most intense storms. For the record, Tip's CDO warmed noticeably before the 870 mb dropsonde pass around 03Z, or about high noon over that portion of the WPac.
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#843 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:59 am

since the radius of max winds is very small there is hope that wrath will be confined to a low population area...I think that's our best hope at this point. One other thing that I find amazing is the forecast of a cat 5 landfall to dissipation in 36 hours. as fast as the ramp up was the ramp down is destined to be even quicker. remarkable to contemplate. As I said last night...this is a "run for your life" storm.
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#844 Postby talkon » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:01 am

Looking at the 1430z frame, cloud tops are definitely warming, but just by a bit.
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#845 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:02 am

Cloud top warming may be diurnal.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#846 Postby DukeDevil91 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:04 am

Image


Haiyan at peak intensity on top, Patricia on the bottom.
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#847 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:05 am

Image No eyewall replacement. Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#848 Postby talkon » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:07 am

DukeDevil91 wrote:Haiyan at peak intensity on top, Patricia on the bottom.


Are they at the same scale?
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#849 Postby DukeDevil91 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:08 am

Warming of the cloud tops seemed to happen immediately after the sun came up. I don't see much weakening. I also noticed a significant wobble east.
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#850 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:08 am

NOAA plane on route towards Patricia.
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#851 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:09 am

I'd say Patricia has peaked and may be starting to gradually weaken.

I'd be surprised if she is still this strong later today, hopefully she's not for Mexico's sake.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#852 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:09 am

DukeDevil91 wrote:Image


Haiyan at peak intensity on top, Patricia on the bottom.

The above image is Utor 2013 not Haiyan.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#853 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:10 am

Not even a slight hint of weakening exists on microwave
Last edited by supercane4867 on Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#854 Postby DukeDevil91 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:10 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
DukeDevil91 wrote:Image


Haiyan at peak intensity on top, Patricia on the bottom.

The above image is Utor 2013 not Haiyan.



My apologies :lol:
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#855 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:12 am

:uarrow: :wink:
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#856 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:12 am

If no EWRC is taking place then don't expect much weakening prior to landfall. She'll also begin to accelerate shortly if not already and a more easterly movement could indicate landfall is a mere 8-9 hrs away.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#857 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:12 am

DukeDevil91 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
DukeDevil91 wrote:Image


Haiyan at peak intensity on top, Patricia on the bottom.

The above image is Utor 2013 not Haiyan.



My apologies :lol:


That's STY UTOR @ 240 kph
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#858 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:13 am

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Re:

#859 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:13 am

TheStormExpert wrote:I'd say Patricia has peaked and may be starting to gradually weaken.

I'd be surprised if she is still this strong later today, hopefully she's not for Mexico's sake.

Sadly it ain't weakening yet, no EWRC is soon to occur and if ever it would it would not weaken Patricia. Warming cloudtops are because of the presence of sunlight over the storm region
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#860 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:15 am

More invaluable data from next recon pass
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