EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, cloud tops are cooling again as SouthDadeFish mentioned:

[WeatherGuesser]

Tip:

"recorded a worldwide record-low pressure of 870 mbar (870.0 hPa; 25.69 inHg) with winds of 305 km/h (190 mph),"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip

So, we have higher wind speeds but not as low a pressure.

[Bunkertor]

Saved loop, cloud tops are cooling again as SouthDadeFish mentioned:

What does that mean when cloud tops are cooling ? More updraft ?

[FlaStormFanatic]

Hope everyone got out. Mexico's tourism industry is gonna take a huge hit.

[CrazyC83]

After this I think the 1935 Labor Day hurricane could use a reanalysis using Patricia and Haiyan as analogs. Also maybe 892 was not its lowest pressure?

[tatertawt24]

I can't tell if it's strengthening now or weakening. In one of those frames the black ring was starting to dissipate but now it's almost wrapped around again.

[SouthDadeFish]

Colder cloud tops means this might be strengthening again.... Or at the very least maintaining intensity. One would have to assume at some point between the last two recon fixes the surface pressure probably was in the lower 870s.

[tatertawt24]

After this I think the 1935 Labor Day hurricane could use a reanalysis using Patricia and Haiyan as analogs. Also maybe 892 was not its lowest pressure?

I believe the 892 was recorded right in the eye, so I think that was likely the lowest pressure.

[brunota2003]

Colder cloud tops means this might be strengthening again.... Or at the very least maintaining intensity. One would have to assume at some point between the last two recon fixes the surface pressure probably was in the lower 870s.

I think, given the fact the cooler cloud tops were still expanding and the pressure was still falling when recon left, the pressure likely bottomed out in the 874-875 range. Without recon, though, you just can't really go lower than that.

Note: Just my opinion.

[Hurrilurker]

Really looks like the eye took a jog to the west in the last frame.

[supercane4867]

This could reintensify up to landfall based on satellite presentation. Can't even imagine a landfalling 870s

[tatertawt24]

I'm wondering if this will pull an Andrew and finish an ERC at the worst time possible.

[Sanibel]

It formed out of a mostly Atlantic-based monsoon trough similar to Wilma.


Lots of energy in the atmosphere people...

[otowntiger]

I would guess that means its pulsing, as in pulsing up and down. That's pretty normal for storms like this. They are never perfectly static. It does seem however that it is holding steady overall and may not significantly weaken until landfall.

I'm not a pro met or even a good amateur one. So don't make plans based on my pontifications.

[404UserNotFound]

Pre-landfall livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP5Y4lISF0s.

[tatertawt24]

Now the ring of black is thicker, but absent on the western side. Idk what to make of her anymore so I'm just going to shut up.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe weakened this morning and trying to make a final run at Tip?

[Cyclenall]

Colder cloud tops means this might be strengthening again.... Or at the very least maintaining intensity. One would have to assume at some point between the last two recon fixes the surface pressure probably was in the lower 870s.

I don't exactly know what is going on with this hurricane now, but lets say it weakened a bit...even in its weakened state it beat its own record again!! This thing was definitely swinging around Tip's lowest pressure, unbelievable!

CNN started their 2:00 pm EDT segment with the hurricane and information.

[windnrain]

Looks like an eastward jog. Manzanilla looks to be under the gun.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_20E/webManager/gifsBy12hr_04.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Its pretty amazing..