
EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical
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Tip:
"recorded a worldwide record-low pressure of 870 mbar (870.0 hPa; 25.69 inHg) with winds of 305 km/h (190 mph),"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip
So, we have higher wind speeds but not as low a pressure.
"recorded a worldwide record-low pressure of 870 mbar (870.0 hPa; 25.69 inHg) with winds of 305 km/h (190 mph),"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip
So, we have higher wind speeds but not as low a pressure.
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Hope everyone got out. Mexico's tourism industry is gonna take a huge hit.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made
I can't tell if it's strengthening now or weakening. In one of those frames the black ring was starting to dissipate but now it's almost wrapped around again.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:After this I think the 1935 Labor Day hurricane could use a reanalysis using Patricia and Haiyan as analogs. Also maybe 892 was not its lowest pressure?
I believe the 892 was recorded right in the eye, so I think that was likely the lowest pressure.
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Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Colder cloud tops means this might be strengthening again.... Or at the very least maintaining intensity. One would have to assume at some point between the last two recon fixes the surface pressure probably was in the lower 870s.
I think, given the fact the cooler cloud tops were still expanding and the pressure was still falling when recon left, the pressure likely bottomed out in the 874-875 range. Without recon, though, you just can't really go lower than that.
Note: Just my opinion.
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Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made
Really looks like the eye took a jog to the west in the last frame.
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I'm wondering if this will pull an Andrew and finish an ERC at the worst time possible.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made
It formed out of a mostly Atlantic-based monsoon trough similar to Wilma.
Lots of energy in the atmosphere people...
Lots of energy in the atmosphere people...
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made
I would guess that means its pulsing, as in pulsing up and down. That's pretty normal for storms like this. They are never perfectly static. It does seem however that it is holding steady overall and may not significantly weaken until landfall.
I'm not a pro met or even a good amateur one. So don't make plans based on my pontifications.
I'm not a pro met or even a good amateur one. So don't make plans based on my pontifications.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made
Pre-landfall livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP5Y4lISF0s.
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Now the ring of black is thicker, but absent on the western side. Idk what to make of her anymore so I'm just going to shut up. 

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Mind Blown Once Again!!
SouthDadeFish wrote:Colder cloud tops means this might be strengthening again.... Or at the very least maintaining intensity. One would have to assume at some point between the last two recon fixes the surface pressure probably was in the lower 870s.
I don't exactly know what is going on with this hurricane now, but lets say it weakened a bit...even in its weakened state it beat its own record again!!

CNN started their 2:00 pm EDT segment with the hurricane and information.
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Looks like an eastward jog. Manzanilla looks to be under the gun.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_20E/webManager/gifsBy12hr_04.gif
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_20E/webManager/gifsBy12hr_04.gif
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: removed image, changed to link
Reason: removed image, changed to link
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Its pretty amazing..
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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