Florida Weather

[NDG]

Yeah, I would like to see a bit of cool weather this winter. If we go through the winter season with hardly any to no freezes, I can't imagine how bad the mosquitoes and bugs are going to be heading into 2016. We need at least some cold weather to kill them off. Also, I am waiting for the first frost to come in which I can finally stop mowing the lawn, at least for a couple of months or so....

Yeah, mosquitoes are really bad outside, the rain is not helping here in C FL.

[northjaxpro]

Exactly. As expected, the current El Nino has bought a lot of rain peninsula-wide, and if this continues, mosquitoes are going to breed like crazy unless we can get some cold snaps to come our way.

[NDG]

A look back at the historic Jan-Feb 2010 record breaking cold for the FL Peninsula, the reason really behind was the record breaking negative AO period which started in December along with a negative NAO and positive PNA, the right recipe for such a cold period, the active subtropical jet due to the EL Nino brought the frozen precip to the State.

[NDG]

A look back at the historic Jan-Feb 2010 record breaking cold for the FL Peninsula, the reason really behind was the record breaking negative AO period which started in December along with a negative NAO and positive PNA, the right recipe for such a cold period, the active subtropical jet due to the EL Nino brought the frozen precip to the State.

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed. We have not had that set up across the peninsula since the 2009-10 winter NDG. The NAO has not even come close to tanking as much as it did that winter.

[Sanibel]

Unusual cool dry season nino type rain on us tonight. Raining for hours. Unusual.

[northjaxpro]

Stalled out cool front across South Florida, an upper trough over the NE GOM, and a strengthening onshore flow have all converged in causing quite the deluge across extreme South Florida and throughout the Keys. Deep, rich tropical moisture is being drawn from the Caribbean, and northeasterly flow is bringing low-level moisture in from the Atlantic. Obviously, there is some very heavy rainfall occurring down there and more is on the way for today. Flood Watch has been posted by NWS Miami WFO for Miami Dade and Broward County from now through Saturday morning. EL Nino is raging down south!

[northjaxpro]

Also, as a side interest, NHC is analyzing a 1012 mb surface Low Pressure area estimated at 18.0 N 87.0 W. in the NW Caribbean, just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Actually looks decent this morning. You can definitely see spin and rotation in that region. I was tempted to make this a separate thread, but I did not pull the trigger, due to I am thinking that eventually shear will not allow this to further develop down the road. However, it is very interesting and impressive to see a tropical entity occuring nonetheless in early December in the NW Caribbean.

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[NDG]

Without a -NAO the core of the cooler temps will continue to have a hard time penetrating the peninsula.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looks like more bark then bite on the flooding rains. I thought the models were being a little agressive to:

The Flood
Watch may be dropped with the evening update if lack of activity
continues. Some of the near term models, which have been too
agressive this afternoon, do show some redevelopment tonight, and
this may already be happening with line of showers across inland
Palm Beach and Broward, approaching the coast. Radar estimates
showsome inch per hour rates with this line.

[Sanibel]

Our wetlands flooded back up to rainy season levels.

[gatorcane]

Looks like more bark then bite on the flooding rains. I thought the models were being a little agressive to:

The Flood
Watch may be dropped with the evening update if lack of activity
continues. Some of the near term models, which have been too
agressive this afternoon, do show some redevelopment tonight, and
this may already be happening with line of showers across inland
Palm Beach and Broward, approaching the coast. Radar estimates
showsome inch per hour rates with this line.

And again the models were wrong as last night featured a lot of rain for parts of SE Florida especially SE Palm Beach in my area where it still continues to rain. For sure the near term models struggled with this weather system. First they showed low rain chances Wed for metro SE Florida with the bulk of the rain arriving Thu., but we ended up with quite a potent band that formed with the help of a seabreeze. The second blunder of these models was last night where another band formed over Southern Palm Beach and Northern Broward and stalled over the area where it rained here for 3-4 hours nonstop.

[Sanibel]

Too cool too late on that Belize Low.


However the clouds outside right now are moving in a way that only happens when something is forming in the Gulf.


Good thing it isn't 2 months ago.

[SouthFloridian92]

I wish Florida could have a repeat of Jan-Feb 2010 every year!

[NDG]

The vegetation & economy would had been much different if we were to have a repeat of Jan/Feb 2010 every year and the snow birds would have had to go further south, I know some of you would love that lol.

[northjaxpro]

If we don't get any cold soon, the possibility is growing that we won't have much of a winter, if at all at down here, at least in North Florida. The NAO just is not showing any indications of tanking anytime soon.

No cold or threat of frost or freezes anywhere in sight for the next 10 days at least for the North Florida region.

[psyclone]

Keep that warmth cranked up! This nino is likely too strong to permit big cold this year. looks 82-83ish to me which was mild & wet. I'm looking forward to eventual active weather with the subtropical jet amping up later this winter (probably after the new year). while this winter may not provide cold, it has great potential to generate plenty of interesting weather in the form of squall lines/svr wx. in the interim the sun is out, a nice breeze is blowing and temps are headed for the low 80's in the tampa bay area. it's just impossible to step outside and not be happy. enjoy!

[Sanibel]

Still flirting with formation down there by Yucatan but the seasonal conditions are too weak to support it.

[gatorcane]

Well it might be nice across Central and north Florida, but here across SE Florida, we have seen little if any sun since last Wed...going on 5 days now, the weekend was basically shot especially Sat with an all day rain event, not to mention some impressive rain totals for a normally dry month in this region. Looks like we might get some more sun by Wed.

The wrath of the "Godzilla" El Nino continues...

[Sanibel]

We've got pools of water in the backyard. That never happens in December.


Same here. Overcast for last 5 days.