It has been a rainy overnight here as over 1.3 inches of rainfall has occurred at my locale up to now. The cool, rainy side of El Nino has finally arrived here across North Florida.
Currently 49.3 degrees with light rain occuring here at my locale and more is on the way. A potent shortwave will move out of the GOM later today and bring one more round of good rainfall before ending tonight. May see a brief break with the rain for a few hours late this morning into the early afternoon, but rain will return later this afternoon with the approach of the shortwave energy, which is currently moving south of the Northern Gulf Coastal region of Louisiana. Rain and cool northwesterly flow will keep max temps only in the lower-mid 50s here today. Once the shortwave moves through by tonight, skies will begin to clear across the northern peninsula as a rather strong modified Polar High (1038 mb) over the Ohio Valley builds down the Eastern CONUS. Some areas across the Suwanee River Valley and Big Bend region may have a shot at touching the freeze mark on Tuesday morning. But, because the High is positioned well north of the peninsula, a similar set-up we had with the cool snap in mid-December across this area, the northerly winds may stay up enough to prevent a freeze to occur across the area. Also, as the High shifts east by Tuesday off the Mid-Atlantic, a cool, onshore flow will commence across Jax, and models are showing the development of a coastal trough just off the Northeast Florida coast. This will likely keep the Jax metro area from having a freeze on Tuesday morning. Lows at my locale Tuesday morning projected to be in the mid-upper 30s
Overall, a rainy, cool weekend across the northern peninsula and cooler temps are slowly filtering its way down the remaining of the state. Well, at least we will not have any more record warmth for awhile thank goodness!!
I took at peek at the long range models and there are hints given by GFS and EURO that both a significant cold outbreak and the potential of a possible winter storm could affect portions of the Deep South and the East Coast the period from January 14-20. Now, that is a long way out, and I don't like looking ahead past 10 days. But, it appears the PNA looks to stay positive and the NAO potentially may be at a neutral to slightly negative phase by mid-January. If that materializes, I think it is fair to reason that a decent cold spell could possibly impact the Eastern CONUS and POTENTIALLY the Florida peninsula later this month. However, too much can change obviously looking that far out. BUT, I am very cautiously analyzing this given how anomolous this El Nino has been this season. We desperately need a frost and freeze at some point here in Jax this season to kill the mosquitoes and other bugs or else we are going to suffer big-time from them we we get into the spring and summer.
