Texas Winter 2015-2016

[South Texas Storms]

It sure has been a while since the state saw a widespread heavy rain event. The latest models aren't showing much for the next week either. I'm optimistic that we will see a cool and wet spring though.

[Brent]

Its really strange to me too I'm from alabama and February may be slightly better than January but January had its share of events too *shrugs*

Southeast/gulf best climo is middle to late January. Feb is a little better for the I-20 corridor from Dallas to Atlanta. But in general the southern plains (Texas plains and Oklahoma) blizzards are most frequent in March. OKC NWS has some info on that.

All that though, it would be nice to at least see some snow showers or something in January it just eases the waiting game. The longer we wait we're also fighting the climo/sun game...

I should add in most of Alabama the snow records were set from a storm in mid March you may have heard of before so... But its much more uniform over there when you look at snow climo for January through March.

But yeah it would be nice to see a big rain event if nothing else... Ever since the eastern blowtorch broke down after Christmas its been so different with the storms here weak and moisture starved.

[Ntxw]

It sure has been a while since the state saw a widespread heavy rain event. The latest models aren't showing much for the next week either. I'm optimistic that we will see a cool and wet spring though.

We'll be fine in the rain department long term. We've seen these dry spells not able to sustain, there's no backbone to them in the broad scale. There isn't a drought signal, with the slower weakening of El Nino and likely neutral by summer the STJ will remain in place for most of this year. It's not until the La Nina (should one occur) matures that drought could settle in which won't be until late this year or 2017. And the +PDO looks to remain the rest of 2016.

I just hope the tornado season won't be as active or deadly this year as was last year in N Texas. We didn't have a Jarrell like 1997 but it was spread over several outbreaks many involving too many deaths.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS finally shows a some interesting weather for Texas. Deep trough moving across the state early next week that brings snow from DFW down into the Hill Country with widespread rain across south, central, and east Texas.

As the run goes out further (around 228 hours), snow falls as far south as Victoria and Houston with 1-2 inches across Harris County!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Could the low on Thursday produce any wintry weather for northern/northeastern Texas? Looks interesting at the very least.

[Ntxw]

Maybe sneaky pattern? Quietly big snows are showing up in the mid atlantic this week perhaps surprise train coming? Wxman57 has been joking showing us snow maps from the longer range but maybe its a sign things are trying to crawl up on us.

[wxman57]

Looks like widespread heavy snow for Texas next Tuesday. Snow down to Houston in the 6Z GFS run. Next run will probably predict record warmth next week... Euro shows nothing across Texas for the same time period, with mid to upper 40s in the Houston area when the GFS shows snow.

[Portastorm]

But if it predicted record warmth for a run or two I'm sure you'd be buying.

Meanwhile I find myself in the uncomfortable yet necessary position of defending the last two GFS runs. A storm of that nature would coincide quite well with the analogs which CPC has been touting for days ... and something our friend srainhoutx shared with us a few days back. The Euro does have a deeper trough rolling through the Southern Plains at the same time ... but enough other differences to mute any type of headline-grabbing storm.

Yes the odds are that the 12z GFS will probably show something else entirely but we shouldn't be too surprised if it keeps "honking" about a Texas/Southern Plains winter storm early next week.

[Ralph's Weather]

While it may not be true Arctic air the past couple mornings (26 and 28) have been pretty chilly.
The GFS did a pretty good job of sniffing out this past storm so maybe we can get something fun next week. I do fully expect a storm like that this season though it is more likely in February. Like others have mentioned big snows are rare in Texas in January.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

But if it predicted record warmth for a run or two I'm sure you'd be buying.

Meanwhile I find myself in the uncomfortable yet necessary position of defending the last two GFS runs. A storm of that nature would coincide quite well with the analogs which CPC has been touting for days ... and something our friend srainhoutx shared with us a few days back. The Euro does have a deeper trough rolling through the Southern Plains at the same time ... but enough other differences to mute any type of headline-grabbing storm.

Yes the odds are that the 12z GFS will probably show something else entirely but we shouldn't be too surprised if it keeps "honking" about a Texas/Southern Plains winter storm early next week.

I wonder who is feeding the GFS its data?

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow:

But if it predicted record warmth for a run or two I'm sure you'd be buying.

Meanwhile I find myself in the uncomfortable yet necessary position of defending the last two GFS runs. A storm of that nature would coincide quite well with the analogs which CPC has been touting for days ... and something our friend srainhoutx shared with us a few days back. The Euro does have a deeper trough rolling through the Southern Plains at the same time ... but enough other differences to mute any type of headline-grabbing storm.

Yes the odds are that the 12z GFS will probably show something else entirely but we shouldn't be too surprised if it keeps "honking" about a Texas/Southern Plains winter storm early next week.

I wonder who is feeding the GFS its data?

All those planes full of people heading to Hawaii to escape the cold.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Seems like just the other day we were talking about exciting times coming up for us and now we're almost in no hope mode.

I never really bought into that. Fear was always that majority of cold was heading east not south.

I live east and haven't seen much of it here either.

[horselattitudesfarm]

On another note, I see lake Travis is only 3.5 feet down and has been slowly creeping upwards. Would love to see it actually get to pool.

[wxman57]

Seems like just the other day we were talking about exciting times coming up for us and now we're almost in no hope mode.

I never really bought into that. Fear was always that majority of cold was heading east not south.

I live east and haven't seen much of it here either.

00Z Euro indicates about 8" of snow for Ashville Friday. 6Z GFS has only a few inches there.

[Ntxw]

Our little disturbance middle of this week will be a blizzard in the mid Atlantic. Washington DC frenzy. Euro Ens lays snows from Texas to the mid atlantic, don't know about Texas (longer range) but mid atlantic will be this week

[TheProfessor]

The 12z GFS shifted a bit to the north giving me close to 6 inches of snow, but it looks like a Clipper system could screw me out of a major winter storm later this week.

[Ntxw]

In other news, the El Nino has not weakened much since its peak. It's been outpushing the models for a rapid decline while warm waters and wwb's are still sloshing in the Pacific. We may not come out of this Nino until mid summer. A wet spring ahead is very likely again.

[Tireman4]

Until it is a week a way, then I start gathering my money to buy into it. Until then, nahh...I just keep running my mileage and trying to get my dissertation finished.

[hriverajr]

12Z GFS kills the snow for central and southeast texas. Stil shows a rather potent trough moving through.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS kills the snow for central and southeast texas. Stil shows a rather potent trough moving through.

Wow! I never expected that. Big snow event for the East Coast Friday/Saturday, though.