Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#281 Postby NDG » Mon Apr 25, 2016 9:18 am

I get the feeling we will see early development in the Caribbean this year if instability continues to stay up and Nino 1+2 along with Nino 3 continues to cool down. Windshear in the Caribbean is till a little above average but that should continue to come down during the next few weeks.

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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#282 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 25, 2016 3:45 pm

Starting to agree with some that too many people are putting too much weight on the colder SST's located in the Northern Atlantic. The Atlantic very rarely has to worry about SST's not being warm enough to support tropical development throughout the hurricane season. If anything development may be delayed until the Caribbean or the Western Atlantic depending on if the waves survive the Tropical Atlantic depending on how hostile it may be this season.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#283 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Apr 25, 2016 3:54 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Starting to agree with some that too many people are putting too much weight on the colder SST's located in the Northern Atlantic. The Atlantic very rarely has to worry about SST's not being warm enough to support tropical development throughout the hurricane season. If anything development may be delayed until the Caribbean or the Western Atlantic depending on if the waves survive the Tropical Atlantic depending on how hostile it may be this season.


Colder SST's in the N ATL is a -AMO pattern that seldom favors elevated upward motion over the region though.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#284 Postby Ntxw » Mon Apr 25, 2016 4:54 pm

Yeah the SST's set up is not so much important on energy for cyclones, always warm enough. The question is set up of pressures and air motion related to high and low pressures across the Atlantic such as strength of the Bermuda high. They can induce easterly shear (trades)
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#285 Postby NDG » Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:43 pm

I still want to know why there is such a difference between these two across the central Atlantic's MDR but also look across the southern hemisphere close to the Antarctic, NESDIS shows much colder SSTs while CDAS shows areas with much warmer SSTs.
Looking at the buoys across the MDR east of the Islands they show warmer SSTs than this time last year by a good .5 degree celsius.

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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#286 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:48 pm

:uarrow: The La Niña looks to be emerging quite nicely. Also if you look around Hawaii to the north and south in the Central Pacific you will see pockets of colder SST's. Wonder what(if any) effects this could have on the Atlantic hurricane season?
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#287 Postby WPBWeather » Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:49 pm

Probably too much uncertainty with these maps at the moment. Bad data and models errors started this year off badly.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#288 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:58 pm

WPBWeather wrote:Probably too much uncertainty with these maps at the moment. Bad data and models errors started this year off badly.

I agree, I also think this season will surprise us one way or another. Still a small chance though it is a dud like 2013.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#289 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Apr 25, 2016 10:48 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: The La Niña looks to be emerging quite nicely. Also if you look around Hawaii to the north and south in the Central Pacific you will see pockets of colder SST's. Wonder what(if any) effects this could have on the Atlantic hurricane season?


It's a classic +PDO signature, which I guess isn't that bad for the ATL.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#290 Postby SFLcane » Tue Apr 26, 2016 11:58 am

Anything on sst map? Updated NOAA anomaly map still showing warm mdr which is way off from Levi site. Hopefully someone will come shed some light on this soon.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#291 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 26, 2016 8:33 pm

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago Lafayette, CA
Negative AMO pattern emerging in the N Atlantic-SSTs much colder now in far N and trop Atl compared w/ 1995-2012 avg
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#292 Postby WPBWeather » Tue Apr 26, 2016 10:15 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago Lafayette, CA
Negative AMO pattern emerging in the N Atlantic-SSTs much colder now in far N and trop Atl compared w/ 1995-2012 avg



But in a rejoinder to the (obvious) hurricane numbers questions...

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach

... No correlation between SSTs and hurricane numbers N of 20N and W of 60W.
6:21 PM - 26 Apr 2016
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#293 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Apr 26, 2016 10:42 pm

Looking at the atlantic it looks quite hostile and that may be something to watch especially if the shear stays high as that may have something to do with the warmth in the EPAC MDR

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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#294 Postby NDG » Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:30 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Looking at the atlantic it looks quite hostile and that may be something to watch especially if the shear stays high as that may have something to do with the warmth in the EPAC MDR

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Is only April and we are coming out of a very strong El Nino so of course shear is very high across the Atlantic basin.
CFSv2 is still very persistent in shear becoming below average across the Caribbean next month.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#295 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 28, 2016 5:16 pm

Um...holy mother of sst's lol. Either that was some serious warming or was NOAA's sst map correct all the time?

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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#296 Postby hurricanetrack » Thu Apr 28, 2016 5:49 pm

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 8.2016.gif

Here is the latest NOAA/NESDIS one. Very warm MDR - no two ways about it. Things looking interesting I would say....
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#297 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 28, 2016 5:55 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomw.4.28.2016.gif

Here is the latest NOAA/NESDIS one. Very warm MDR - no two ways about it. Things looking interesting I would say....


Impressive..
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#298 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 28, 2016 5:55 pm

curious to see what ECMWF has to say in a few days
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#299 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:15 pm

Nice warming ..

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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

#300 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:24 pm

Almost 100kts of shear in the Caribbean.
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