
Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
I get the feeling we will see early development in the Caribbean this year if instability continues to stay up and Nino 1+2 along with Nino 3 continues to cool down. Windshear in the Caribbean is till a little above average but that should continue to come down during the next few weeks.


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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Starting to agree with some that too many people are putting too much weight on the colder SST's located in the Northern Atlantic. The Atlantic very rarely has to worry about SST's not being warm enough to support tropical development throughout the hurricane season. If anything development may be delayed until the Caribbean or the Western Atlantic depending on if the waves survive the Tropical Atlantic depending on how hostile it may be this season.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
TheStormExpert wrote:Starting to agree with some that too many people are putting too much weight on the colder SST's located in the Northern Atlantic. The Atlantic very rarely has to worry about SST's not being warm enough to support tropical development throughout the hurricane season. If anything development may be delayed until the Caribbean or the Western Atlantic depending on if the waves survive the Tropical Atlantic depending on how hostile it may be this season.
Colder SST's in the N ATL is a -AMO pattern that seldom favors elevated upward motion over the region though.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Yeah the SST's set up is not so much important on energy for cyclones, always warm enough. The question is set up of pressures and air motion related to high and low pressures across the Atlantic such as strength of the Bermuda high. They can induce easterly shear (trades)
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
I still want to know why there is such a difference between these two across the central Atlantic's MDR but also look across the southern hemisphere close to the Antarctic, NESDIS shows much colder SSTs while CDAS shows areas with much warmer SSTs.
Looking at the buoys across the MDR east of the Islands they show warmer SSTs than this time last year by a good .5 degree celsius.


Looking at the buoys across the MDR east of the Islands they show warmer SSTs than this time last year by a good .5 degree celsius.


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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Probably too much uncertainty with these maps at the moment. Bad data and models errors started this year off badly.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
WPBWeather wrote:Probably too much uncertainty with these maps at the moment. Bad data and models errors started this year off badly.
I agree, I also think this season will surprise us one way or another. Still a small chance though it is a dud like 2013.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: The La Niña looks to be emerging quite nicely. Also if you look around Hawaii to the north and south in the Central Pacific you will see pockets of colder SST's. Wonder what(if any) effects this could have on the Atlantic hurricane season?
It's a classic +PDO signature, which I guess isn't that bad for the ATL.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Anything on sst map? Updated NOAA anomaly map still showing warm mdr which is way off from Levi site. Hopefully someone will come shed some light on this soon.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago Lafayette, CA
Negative AMO pattern emerging in the N Atlantic-SSTs much colder now in far N and trop Atl compared w/ 1995-2012 avg
Negative AMO pattern emerging in the N Atlantic-SSTs much colder now in far N and trop Atl compared w/ 1995-2012 avg
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Kingarabian wrote:Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago Lafayette, CA
Negative AMO pattern emerging in the N Atlantic-SSTs much colder now in far N and trop Atl compared w/ 1995-2012 avg
But in a rejoinder to the (obvious) hurricane numbers questions...
Philip Klotzbach
@philklotzbach
... No correlation between SSTs and hurricane numbers N of 20N and W of 60W.
6:21 PM - 26 Apr 2016
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Looking at the atlantic it looks quite hostile and that may be something to watch especially if the shear stays high as that may have something to do with the warmth in the EPAC MDR
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Hurricaneman wrote:Looking at the atlantic it looks quite hostile and that may be something to watch especially if the shear stays high as that may have something to do with the warmth in the EPAC MDR
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Is only April and we are coming out of a very strong El Nino so of course shear is very high across the Atlantic basin.
CFSv2 is still very persistent in shear becoming below average across the Caribbean next month.
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Um...holy mother of sst's lol. Either that was some serious warming or was NOAA's sst map correct all the time?


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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 8.2016.gif
Here is the latest NOAA/NESDIS one. Very warm MDR - no two ways about it. Things looking interesting I would say....
Here is the latest NOAA/NESDIS one. Very warm MDR - no two ways about it. Things looking interesting I would say....
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
hurricanetrack wrote:http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomw.4.28.2016.gif
Here is the latest NOAA/NESDIS one. Very warm MDR - no two ways about it. Things looking interesting I would say....
Impressive..
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
curious to see what ECMWF has to say in a few days
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Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Almost 100kts of shear in the Caribbean.
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