2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

is that storm depicted for early next week on the Euro and GFS tropical? It seems more a nor'easter to me

Yep it's non tropical.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't be so sure that the low off the East U.S. Coast next Mon/Tue won't be classified as a subtropical storm. It may separate from the front enough to be classified STS. I'm not talking about the first low Saturday night/Sunday, I'm talking about the storm behind it on Monday afternoon/Tuesday.

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldn't be so sure that the low off the East U.S. Coast next Mon/Tue won't be classified as a subtropical storm. It may separate from the front enough to be classified STS. I'm not talking about the first low Saturday night/Sunday, I'm talking about the storm behind it on Monday afternoon/Tuesday.

Yeah it does have the slightest Subtropical look to it for a very short time. Not to mention the 18z GFS has come on board some though not nearly as strong as the 12z Euro.

[gatorcane]

I wouldn't be so sure that the low off the East U.S. Coast next Mon/Tue won't be classified as a subtropical storm. It may separate from the front enough to be classified STS. I'm not talking about the first low Saturday night/Sunday, I'm talking about the storm behind it on Monday afternoon/Tuesday.

I agree, we may get an STS out of this. The ECMWF looks quite bullish at 168 hours:

[NDG]

Two runs in a row that the Euro shows possible weak development over the central Caribbean late next week.

[TheStormExpert]

Two runs in a row that the Euro shows possible weak development over the central Caribbean late next week.

Add the 00z Euro on Thursday morning to that. To be honest I do not expect much if any development from this due to wind shear still being too strong. Give it a few more weeks at least and this will be an area to closely watch!

[TheStormExpert]

Also the 06z GFS in the long range blows up a storm just north of the Lesser Antilies heading north out to sea passing just East of Bermuda.

[NDG]

Two runs in a row that the Euro shows possible weak development over the central Caribbean late next week.

Add the 00z Euro on Thursday morning to that. To be honest I do not expect much if any development from this due to wind shear still being too strong. Give it a few more weeks at least and this will be an area to closely watch!

Yes it will probably be a weak one if at all, even the Euro has been the best in its 7-10 day range.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes it will probably be a weak one if at all, even the Euro has been the best in its 7-10 day range.

The GFS has forecast shear values upwards of 50kts. 240hrs. out in the Western Caribbean.

[Javlin]

Then I thought wind shear is harder to forecast than a possible phantom storm.

[WPBWeather]

Then I thought wind shear is harder to forecast than a possible phantom storm.

Old weather quote: "Shear today, gone tomorrow."

[PTrackerLA]

Euro carib low would jibe with what JB has been saying showing up in the weeklies towards the end of the month.

Side note: I'm so thrilled with the animated GIF feature on tropical tidbits now. I'm going to be dizzy reading this forum late at night this season but it will help so much to share with others!

[TheStormExpert]

Euro carib low would jibe with what JB has been saying showing up in the weeklies towards the end of the month.

Side note: I'm so thrilled with the animated GIF feature on tropical tidbits now. I'm going to be dizzy reading this forum late at night this season but it will help so much to share with others!

Much nicer than posting images after images after images on here.

[TheStormExpert]

Then I thought wind shear is harder to forecast than a possible phantom storm.

It is, but usually in May it is strong throughout the Caribbean and GoM due to the subtropical jet.

[Javlin]

Then I thought wind shear is harder to forecast than a possible phantom storm.

It is, but usually in May it is strong throughout the Caribbean and GoM due to the subtropical jet.

Yea that's probably a given

[Steve]

Oh it is (btw hey Javlin). But it's kind of the point of May (some) June, (some) October and November storms in the Gulf and Caribbean. Shear is often a pretty big and important component as a lot of the lopsided and hybrid storms are right up on the edge. 50mph shear doesn't prevent development and often could indicate it. Obviously it's not ideal for anything major, but it's not an impediment when it's part of the process and pattern.

[Javlin]

Oh it is (btw hey Javlin)..

Frank should start poking his head in before long.Yea still got that seasonal change going on so shear is expected to some degree but amany lopsided storms have made there presence in the GOM early in the season.Here's to people staying prepared and safe this upcomiing season.

[stormwise]

The 18z GFS storm off the east coast is looking interesting the high pressure will likely stop the low from going out to sea. If the sst is sufficient we may see a subtropical system evolve.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=590.4

[TheStormExpert]

Last two runs of the GFS show a storm starting to form at around 180hrs. on both the 00z and 06z runs in the Southwestern Atlantic or Extreme SE Bahamas and heading in the direction of the East Coast or out to sea.

The Euro too on it's 00z run this morning shows possibly the start of something forming with gradual lowering pressure in the Southwest Atlantic.

00z GFS Fri. May 20th, 2016


06z GFS Fri. May 20th, 2016


00z Euro 240hrs. on Fri. May 20th, 2016

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF and GFS continue to show what looks like a TC heading toward NC/SC from the Bahamas starting at hour 168. I could be wrong but it has been persistent in showing it.