2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheAustinMan]

:uarrow: Well the GFS and Euro seem to be pushing the timeframe back so it is likely yet another phantom storm.

Are you sure the timeframe is being pushed back? The Euro does seem to have been keeping the disturbance at 240 hours, but the GFS so far has only shifted the disturbance's future track eastward, and the extra time tagged on appears to reflect a more easterly track as opposed to running up Florida's spine (which would mean a stormy Memorial Day weekend for Florida). The GFS develops a broad circulation at the 700mb-400mb levels over the Bahamas beginning Thursday, May 26, and that timing has been particularly persistent for the past several runs.

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[floridasun78]

my weather man here in Miami talking that low may form in Bahama and be close enough bring some rain for long weekend but he say will move toward Carolina

[WPBWeather]

my weather man here in Miami talking that low may form in Bahama and be close enough bring some rain for long weekend but he say will move toward Carolina

Welcome back.

[floridasun78]

i notice nws in miami are not biting on area forming by Bahamas yet here what their say Wednesday and Beyond: While the main upper level trough moves away
from the east coast by mid week, models have been consistent in
showing the southern portion cutting off over the Bahamas into
late week. At the surface, high pressure strengthens over the
Western Atlantic, leading to increasing easterly flow for the
latter half of the week.

[floridasun78]

my weather man here in Miami talking that low may form in Bahama and be close enough bring some rain for long weekend but he say will move toward Carolina

Welcome back.

ty you see me here doing hurr season one channel here ch10 already doing hurr special on Friday 8pm

[NDG]

The GFS has become very persistent and consistent in the formation of a low pressure just east of FL by late Sat/Sunday timeframe, I have counted at least 4 runs in row.
The Euro is also joining the GFS, but shows timing of development a good 48 hrs later than the GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

It look is like weak Subtropical development if anything.

[NDG]

:uarrow: It look is like weak Subtropical development if anything.

Yes, UL trough is what's going to get it going, according to the GFS, so it will not be a pure tropical system in its beginning but it could gain more tropical characteristics as it moves over the warmer gulf stream.

[TheStormExpert]

I was just thinking that, the GFS looks to try and start ramping it up as it approaches the coast due to crossing the Gulf Stream. Got to watch that as we've seen storms transition to purely tropical very easily once done so, good example is Beryl(2012).

[cycloneye]

Levi says things are not clear about mischief off SE U.S coast.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 45m45 minutes ago

GFS and ECMWF disagree strongly on evolution of W. Atlantic cutoff low. Both models have biases in this situation.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z GFS has sped up the time of the possible SE U.S. system from the past few runs. Now has it just offshore the GA/SC coast in 120 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z GFS has sped up the time of the possible SE U.S. system from the past few runs. Now has it just offshore the GA/SC coast in 120 hours.

12z run is weaker than previous two runs.

[gatorcane]

i notice nws in miami are not biting on area forming by Bahamas yet here what their say Wednesday and Beyond: While the main upper level trough moves away
from the east coast by mid week, models have been consistent in
showing the southern portion cutting off over the Bahamas into
late week. At the surface, high pressure strengthens over the
Western Atlantic, leading to increasing easterly flow for the
latter half of the week.

if Florida ends up on the subsidence side of this low (west side) as it tracks NW east of the Bahamas (as shown by the latest GFS run), it would just mean drier and hotter weather for Florida. Models seem all over the place with the evolution of this low so we'll have to wait and see what impacts to Florida for Memorial Day weekend there will be, if any.

[WeatherEmperor]

I apologize if I am going off topic...but is this the newly upgraded Gfs or not?

The 12z GFS has sped up the time of the possible SE U.S. system from the past few runs. Now has it just offshore the GA/SC coast in 120 hours.

[crownweather]

I apologize if I am going off topic...but is this the newly upgraded Gfs or not?

The 12z GFS has sped up the time of the possible SE U.S. system from the past few runs. Now has it just offshore the GA/SC coast in 120 hours.

Yes, it is the upgraded GFS model.

[cycloneye]

Accuweather jumps on board for development.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... d/57639474

[tarheelprogrammer]

Accuweather jumps on board for development.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... d/57639474

How warm is the water?

[cycloneye]

Waters ae not extremely warm but are sufficient to support development of a Tropical system especially in the Gulfstream.If is subtropical,it can survive some cooler waters.

[cycloneye]

No new thread for this potential area will not be posted at this time so let's keep the discussions about this area in this thread for now. From our announcement thread about this:

...in the medium/extended range is not allowed, unless:

1) There is an actual incipient area of disturbed weather already in place, or
2) It is being mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook

[tarheelprogrammer]

Thanks Cycloneye