Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[NDG]

All I know is that the Atlantic has been busier so far this year compared to northern Pacific

[WPBWeather]

All I know is that the Atlantic has been busier so far this year compared to northern Pacific

You are right again, NDG.

[Yellow Evan]

All I know is that the Atlantic has been busier so far this year compared to northern Pacific

At this point this really doesn't mean much.

[Kingarabian]

All I know is that the Atlantic has been busier so far this year compared to northern Pacific

It's a given considering that each year we have that gulf stream storm.

[tolakram]

Just for the record, nothing new with instability in the tropical Atlantic, it's low as usual.

[NDG]

The Azore's high has been almost non existing the past few days and forecasted to stay weak over the next few days.

[gatorcane]

SSTs continue to be warmer than normal across much of the Atlantic MDR. Note the area between the Lesser Antilles and Africa which looks noticeably above normal.

[NDG]

[Alyono]

looks like 2-3C above normal in the EPAC though

[NDG]

Despite a neutral to negative NAO over the past 4 weeks or so, a strong mid level ridge over the central Atlantic was present, which in the past few days pushed westward closer to the NE US.

[Hurricaneman]

The PDO is still positive but not as much as it was which could be less of a negative in the coming months

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kingarabian]

The PDO is still positive but not as much as it was which could be less of a negative in the coming months

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Remember: The PDO is a long term variable. Changes here or there will take sometime to take effect.

[Yellow Evan]

The PDO is still positive but not as much as it was which could be less of a negative in the coming months

The general horseshoe shape +PDO is still as evident as ever as suggested by CDAS.

[cycloneye]

Big Sal outbreak ongoing in Tropical Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

Big Sal outbreak ongoing in Tropical Atlantic.

http://i.imgur.com/BQBKCQf.jpg

Nothing abnormal here Luis June and July typically peak months SAL.

[Hurricaneman]

If anything the SAL is lower in density than usual for this time of year it seems

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

I'm going with a low end Cape Verde season because of the Azores high and that IMO means the MDR east of 50W might have low to no activity but west of there there will be a lot of hurricane activity especially the GOM, Caribbean, East Coast and subtropical Atlantic which means any area in the atlantic not in the MDR are going to probably have a good bit of activity much like 1985

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

Joe B. say we may have to watch the Western half of the GoM second half of June.

Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
West/central gulf place to watch later June, then likely overall lull till real season starts in August

[thundercam96]

How do current forecasted steering trends affect Florida in the mix?

[TheStormExpert]

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice

Latest ECMWF seasonal up to 9 hurricanes from July-Dec. That would bring totals up to 10 for the season when including Alex.