2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[floridasun78]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
By the beginning of next week, a wave of moisture makes it way
northward, towards the CWA. Models are showing showers and storms
affecting parts of South Florida on Monday. The GFS shows a 500mb
trough digging over the eastern US at this time as well. The GFS
has the trough keeping most of the moisture offshore at this time,
affecting areas mainly from somewhere between I75 and Tamiami
Trail, south. The ECMWF Has a similar scenario, but instead of the
trough pushing the wave of moisture to the east, it draws it
north, affecting the entire area at some point Monday, before it
transitions over Central Florida. Model blends indicate showers
and storms are likely Monday and Tuesday, and with a wave of
moisture looking to head to the area, can find little reason to
disagree at this point, so kept the PoPs high for the beginning of
next week.

So, for this week, through the weekend, looks like fairly typical
diurnal cycles of showers and storms for South Florida. Highs look
to sit right around 90 across the area through the weekend as
well. Then, for the beginning of next week, a wave of moisture
moves northward and brings high chances for showers and storms to
the area for Monday and Tuesday.

[Hammy]

GEM and Euro are back to showing a mid-range storm after a single run of not showing it, and the track/timing are almost identical yet again. GFS also shows a broad closed low (via closed isobar) around the same time, though less organized.

[stormwise]

GEM and Euro are back to showing a mid-range storm after a single run of not showing it, and the track/timing are almost identical yet again. GFS also shows a broad closed low (via closed isobar) around the same time, though less organized.

looks likely a intense small TC
https://i.imgsafe.org/e8cd5a29d4.png
vort
https://i.imgsafe.org/e8d9adb2cc.png
shear

[drezee]

That shows an outflow jet with a system in the proper quad....interesting run of the euro

[cycloneye]

06z GFS more stronger.

[Kingarabian]

Seems like this system has too small of a window for development. Hopefully this means that at most this will be a TS.

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[Dean4Storms]

Shear and dry air to its NW will be limiting factors I believe.

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting to note that the 06z GFS brings the energy from the East Pacific starting @ 48hrs. or so and crosses it over into the Western Caribbean @ 126hrs. or so where it develops into a moderate strength TS that hits extreme S. FL @ 192hrs. The key with this run is that it keeps the low far enough south in the GoM to avoid the strongest wind shear and also has it sitting right under an anticyclone the whole time verses previous runs where it didn't.

[RL3AO]

My initial thoughts are that these early season Caribbean and GOM systems have problems organizing quickly and usually become rain threats more than anything.

Well see if this one can get a little stronger (like the GFS) shows but I'm skeptical.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowen's take on initial focus of any possible development.

TropicalTidbits · 10m10 minutes ago

Trade wind "burst" pattern will lead to heavy rain progressing into western Caribbean and possibly Florida next week.

@TropicalTidbits · 5m5 minutes ago

Models will consistently overestimate the ability of this type of pattern to produce a bonafide TC. Gotta play the waiting game here.

[psyclone]

My initial thoughts are that these early season Caribbean and GOM systems have problems organizing quickly and usually become rain threats more than anything.

Well see if this one can get a little stronger (like the GFS) shows but I'm skeptical.

Agree. I'm watching for the moisture plume...2+" PWATS and seabreeze/outflow collisions can yield some weather more spectacular than a low end TC. And the gun reloads everyday. That's why if you want better lightning climo than portions of the Florida peninsula... you need a passport.

[jlauderdal]

do not get sucked into the gfs development trap...the gfs has been developing systems and hitting sofla for years,,,until it can actually nail something outside of 72 hours be very cautious

[TheStormExpert]

And just like that the 12z GFS drops development.

[gatorcane]

And just like that the 12z GFS drops development.

Seems to me the GFS has trended closer to the ECMWF on possible development of a Caribbean low in about 5 days from now (not EPAC crossover in the long-range which seems unrealistic). There is some land interaction on this run so that might hinder development. Do note the upper anti-cyclone sitting over the NW Caribbean just east of the low.

[TheStormExpert]

Saw that too, 50 miles or so can make a difference.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM (not a great model so take with a grain of salt):


12Z CMC (usually an overbullish model):

[SFLcane]

Looks likes gets absorbed into front messy rainy in Florida. Not sold on development.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GEFS more aggressive with development. Hmmmmmmmmm.

[tropicwatch]

As always, timing of the front and anything in the gulf will be the determining factor. I am kind of surprised at the fronts coming through so forcefully this time of year.

[floridasun78]

carribbean die storm now so could models be wrong?