2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Alyono]

according to the CMC and EC, the trough shifts significantly westward over the next week

[CourierPR]

What would the implications be, Alyono?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

More texas problem i would think

[stormlover2013]

Yeah new gfs shows like sw la/tex but will keep changing, if euro is on board then I'll start to pay attention

[Alyono]

What would the implications be, Alyono?

An EPAC storm, not a Caribbean storm

[RL3AO]

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/ ... the-world/


A little off topic but here's an article about the rough couple months the GFS has had. Note - This only measures the 5 day (120 hr) verification at 500 mb in the N hemisphere between 20 and 80N. It doesn't mean it applies to tropical cyclone development.

[stormwise]

It wont come as any real suprize to see a spinup on the end off the MT in the Western Caribbean end.. A vigorous MJO enhanced MT can have multi embedded lows along the trof.

[hurricanetrack]

Speaking of global model runs....

The NCEP site GFS graphics are, in my opinion, awful now. The site seems oddly formatted too. Ugh. Loved to be able to go in and look at all the layers but now the images are just fuzzy and crappy looking. Anyone else notice this? What is the deal?

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS is such a lost cause.

[Alyono]

12Z MU basically goes full Katrina

I needed that good laugh today. That's not going to happen

[Hurricaneman]

If I had to bet I could see a weak system in the Western Caribbean with a track similar to Opal in 1995 and a intensity similar to Cindy in 2005 but the brunt of the development will probably be in the EPAC from this but a low on both sides is possible but IMO not a complete blowup into something intense


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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

12Z MU basically goes full Katrina

I needed that good laugh today. That's not going to happen

...what? It shows a Category 1 hurricane making landfall, in no way comparable to Katrina.

[srainhoutx]

Personally I would not be too quick dismissing the possibility of TC genesis in the NW Caribbean/Bay of Campeche. A very robust MJO pulse should arrive across the Eastern Pacific, Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf around July 1st. There are a couple of tropical wave candidates that will be nearing the Western Atlantic Basin during that timeframe. Time will tell if all the upgrades to the GFS are in fact beneficial. We heard directly from the Scientists at the NCEP this Spring at various Hurricane Conferences the work that had been completed as well as increased computing power.

[cycloneye]

We need the Euro to be like GFS to believe the scenario. I am 50/50 on this waiting to see if the model joins GFS.

[srainhoutx]

We need the Euro to be like GFS to believe the scenario.

We need ensemble support from the Global models at that range, Luis...

[cycloneye]

We need the Euro to be like GFS to believe the scenario.

We need ensemble support from the Global models at that range, Luis...

Yes,agree 100%.

[Yellow Evan]

We need the Euro to be like GFS to believe the scenario.

We need ensemble support from the Global models at that range, Luis...

Tbf most GEFS runs do support to a reasonable extent what the GFS is showing.

[TheStormExpert]

Here are the 12z GEFS Ensemble Members for what it's worth.

[RL3AO]

Two days ago the GFS had landfall on FL panhandle on the 3rd. Now it's LA on the 6th. It's been in the 300 hr range for a week now.

[cycloneye]

Two days ago the GFS had landfall on FL panhandle on the 3rd. Now it's LA on the 6th. It's been in the 300 hr range for a week now.

GFS has been in the same place in the 7 thru 8 day range for the past 2 days of runs.