2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

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Alyono
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#501 Postby Alyono » Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:14 pm

according to the CMC and EC, the trough shifts significantly westward over the next week
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#502 Postby CourierPR » Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:19 pm

What would the implications be, Alyono?
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#503 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:36 pm

More texas problem i would think
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#504 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:41 pm

Yeah new gfs shows like sw la/tex but will keep changing, if euro is on board then I'll start to pay attention
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#505 Postby Alyono » Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:45 pm

CourierPR wrote:What would the implications be, Alyono?


An EPAC storm, not a Caribbean storm
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#506 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:18 pm

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/ ... the-world/


A little off topic but here's an article about the rough couple months the GFS has had. Note - This only measures the 5 day (120 hr) verification at 500 mb in the N hemisphere between 20 and 80N. It doesn't mean it applies to tropical cyclone development.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#507 Postby stormwise » Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:52 pm

It wont come as any real suprize to see a spinup on the end off the MT in the Western Caribbean end.. A vigorous MJO enhanced MT can have multi embedded lows along the trof.

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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#508 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:39 am

Speaking of global model runs....

The NCEP site GFS graphics are, in my opinion, awful now. The site seems oddly formatted too. Ugh. Loved to be able to go in and look at all the layers but now the images are just fuzzy and crappy looking. Anyone else notice this? What is the deal?
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#509 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:09 pm

The GFS is such a lost cause. :roll:

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Last edited by TheStormExpert on Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#510 Postby Alyono » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:09 pm

12Z MU basically goes full Katrina

I needed that good laugh today. That's not going to happen
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#511 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:16 pm

If I had to bet I could see a weak system in the Western Caribbean with a track similar to Opal in 1995 and a intensity similar to Cindy in 2005 but the brunt of the development will probably be in the EPAC from this but a low on both sides is possible but IMO not a complete blowup into something intense


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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#512 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:21 pm

Alyono wrote:12Z MU basically goes full Katrina

I needed that good laugh today. That's not going to happen

...what? It shows a Category 1 hurricane making landfall, in no way comparable to Katrina.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#513 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:30 pm

Personally I would not be too quick dismissing the possibility of TC genesis in the NW Caribbean/Bay of Campeche. A very robust MJO pulse should arrive across the Eastern Pacific, Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf around July 1st. There are a couple of tropical wave candidates that will be nearing the Western Atlantic Basin during that timeframe. Time will tell if all the upgrades to the GFS are in fact beneficial. We heard directly from the Scientists at the NCEP this Spring at various Hurricane Conferences the work that had been completed as well as increased computing power.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#514 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:41 pm

We need the Euro to be like GFS to believe the scenario. I am 50/50 on this waiting to see if the model joins GFS.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#515 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:We need the Euro to be like GFS to believe the scenario.


We need ensemble support from the Global models at that range, Luis... :wink:
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#516 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:46 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:We need the Euro to be like GFS to believe the scenario.


We need ensemble support from the Global models at that range, Luis... :wink:


Yes,agree 100%. :)
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#517 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:46 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:We need the Euro to be like GFS to believe the scenario.


We need ensemble support from the Global models at that range, Luis... :wink:


Tbf most GEFS runs do support to a reasonable extent what the GFS is showing.
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TheStormExpert

Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#518 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:57 pm

:uarrow: Here are the 12z GEFS Ensemble Members for what it's worth.

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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#519 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:59 pm

Two days ago the GFS had landfall on FL panhandle on the 3rd. Now it's LA on the 6th. It's been in the 300 hr range for a week now.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#520 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:13 pm

RL3AO wrote:Two days ago the GFS had landfall on FL panhandle on the 3rd. Now it's LA on the 6th. It's been in the 300 hr range for a week now.


GFS has been in the same place in the 7 thru 8 day range for the past 2 days of runs.
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